Initializing Decadal Climate Predictions with the GECCO Oceanic Synthesis: Effects on the North Atlantic

By Holger Pohlmann, Johann Jungclaus, A. Köhl, Detlef Stammer, Jochem Marotzke. 2009

298 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, Oceanography

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/4cd1d8ebb9462424e24fe1e832dd01ecdc33e92d

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Citations in the corpus

Challenges and Prospects in Ocean Circulation Models (2019, methodology): “, 2006) and was soon thereafter tested using ensembles initialized from observationbased reconstructions (Smith et al., 2007; Keenlyside et al., 2008; Pohlmann et al., 2009; Yeager et al., 2012; Meehl et al., 2014; Scaife et al., 2014).”
Observations, inferences, and mechanisms of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A review (2016, background): “Some initialized prediction systems find predictability of the AMOC on interannual to decadal timescales [Keenlyside et al., 2008], whereas others exhibit little skill beyond persistence or a trend [Pohlmann et al., 2009; Kröger et al., 2012].”
Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches (2014, background): “…find that initialization improves the predictive skill of temperature in the North Atlantic (e.g., Smith et al. 2010; van Oldenborgh et al. 2012; Pohlmann et al. 2009; Keenlyside et al. 2008; Matei et al. 2012c; Doblas-Reyes et al. 2013; Yang et al. 2013; A. Rosati et al. 2014, unpublished…”
Evaluation of the GECCO2 ocean synthesis: transports of volume, heat and freshwater in the Atlantic (2015, background): “With the upcoming interest in decadal climate predictions (e.g. Smith et al., 2007; Keenlyside et al., 2008; Pohlmann et al., 2009), the focus of has now shifted toward their use for initialization of decadal climate predictions (Balmaseda et al.”
A decadal prediction case study: Late twentieth-century North Atlantic Ocean heat content (2012, background): “…that historical initialization can enhance model skill at predicting observed regional surface temperature variations on decadal time scales above the level that can be achieved using realistic external forcing alone (e.g., Smith et al. 2007; Keenlyside et al. 2008; Pohlmann et al. 2009).”
What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting? (2012, background): “…global temperature (Smith et al 2007) initialization improves predictions of surface temperature mainly in the north Atlantic and Pacific ocean (Keenlyside et al 2008, Pohlmann et al 2009, Mochizuki et al 2009, Smith et al 2010), but evidence for improved predictions over land is less convincing.”
Decadal prediction skill in a multi-model ensemble (2012, result): “These numbers are similar to the ones obtained by Pohlmann et al (2009) (r≈0.7 for years 1–5, 0.6 for years 5–10).”
How does internal variability influence the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce the recent trend in Southern Ocean sea ice extent (2012, background): “…prevent model biases but it avoids the initialization of the model with a state which is too260 far from its own climatology and thus limits model drift (e.g. Pierce et al., 2004; Smith et al., 2007; Troccoli and Palmer, 2007; Keenlyside et al., 2008; Pohlmann et al., 2009), as discussed in Sect.”
Past, Present, and Future Changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (2012, background): “T. Kanzow, and J. Marotzke, 2009: Observed and simulated estimates of the meridional overturning circulation at 26.5°N in the Atlantic.”
Predicted slowdown in the rate of Atlantic sea ice loss (2015, background): “…Earth System Model (CESM) decadal prediction (DP) system [Yeager et al., 2012; Karspeck et al., 2014] is one of several nascent DP efforts [e.g., Pohlmann et al., 2009; Smith et al., 2010; van Oldenborgh et al., 2012; Chikamoto et al., 2013; Doblas-Reyes et al., 2013] that have demonstrated…”