Hybrid modeling of China’s vehicle ownership and projection through 2050

By Hao Han, Hewu Wang, Ran Yi. 2011

123 citations recorded by the source corpus.

As representative for emerging vehicle market, China has one of the fastest growing rates of automobile ownership in the world. The huge and increasing vehicle stock has significantly contributed to the fast growing of China’s energy demand and GHG emissions. It is an important issue to project China’s vehicle ownership, which to a large extent determines China’s oil demand and GHG emissions from road transportation sector in the future. In this study, we established a hybrid model with three sub models to simulate the growth patterns of China’s private passenger vehicles, urban public transport vehicles and economic utility vehicles. By using this model, we projected that China’s vehicle population would reach 184.8, 363.8 and 606.7 million by 2020, 2030 and 2050 respectively. The fast increase of urban private passenger vehicles is the main driving force for vehicle population growth. Population of urban private passenger vehicles would account for 70.1%, 81.1% and 86.1% of total vehicle population in 2020, 2030 and 2050 respectively. It was demonstrated by sensitivity analysis that vehicle population was quite sensitive to household income and vehicle price, implying an effective lever for regulating the growth of vehicle population.

Subfields: Automotive Engineering, Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/45b1fe1cb0d8bb408c736df04cd60015f44c219a

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Citations in the corpus

Energy consumption and GHG emissions from China's freight transport sector: Scenarios through 2050 (2015, background): “Such a growth in freight transport caused great increases of energy consumption and GHG emissions (Guo et al., 2014; Hao et al., 2011c).”
China’s electric vehicle subsidy scheme: Rationale and impacts (2014, methodology): “In this study, we assumed that the FCR of BEPVs would not change over time.”
Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China's passenger vehicle fleet (2011, background): “Current researches mainly focused on correlating vehicle registration growth with economy factors [5,32].”
Impact of the electricity mix and use profile in the life-cycle assessment of electric vehicles (2013, background): “With access to a more accessible mobility, the demand for new vehicles is rising rapidly and vehicle numbers are estimated to more than double before 2050, with highest growth rates in developing countries [2–4].”
Long-term Transport Energy Demand and Climate Policy: Alternative Visions on Transport Decarbonization in Energy Economy Models (2014, background): “For a comparison, [44] develop a detailed stratified”