Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector

By N. Keenlyside, M. Latif, Johann Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh, E. Roeckner. Nature, 2008

767 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/3db069a08a7378feb0edbceb6d0cd1979d7d3fc2

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Citations in the corpus

Rapid biogeographical plankton shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean (2009, background): “…of the isotherm (indicator of the boundary between polar and temperate systems) and changes have been detected from phytoplankton to zooplankton to fish in the pelagos (Beaugrand & Reid, 2003) and the benthos (Kroncke et al., 1998), affecting also benthicpelagic coupling (Kirby et al., 2008).”
A comparison of full-field and anomaly initialization for seasonal to decadal climate prediction (2013, methodology): “Pioneering decadal prediction studies (Smith et al. 2007; Keenlyside et al. 2008; Pohlmann et al. 2009; Mochizuki et al. 2009) therefore adopted a different approach known as anomaly initialization (Pierce et al.”
Observations, inferences, and mechanisms of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A review (2016, background): “Some initialized prediction systems find predictability of the AMOC on interannual to decadal timescales [Keenlyside et al., 2008], whereas others exhibit little skill beyond persistence or a trend [Pohlmann et al., 2009; Kröger et al., 2012].”
Detecting Improvements in Forecast Correlation Skill: Statistical Testing and Power Analysis (2017, methodology): “This test is presented in Jolliffe and Stephenson (2012, section 5.4.4) and has been used in the climate literature to assess correlation differences between forecasting systems; examples include Keenlyside et al. (2008), Du et al. (2012), DoblasReyes et al. (2013b), and Pepler et al. (2015).”
What is the current state of scientific knowledge with regard to seasonal and decadal forecasting? (2012, background): “…to global temperature (Smith et al 2007) initialization improves predictions of surface temperature mainly in the north Atlantic and Pacific ocean (Keenlyside et al 2008, Pohlmann et al 2009, Mochizuki et al 2009, Smith et al 2010), but evidence for improved predictions over land is less…”
Evaluation of the GECCO2 ocean synthesis: transports of volume, heat and freshwater in the Atlantic (2015, background): “With the upcoming interest in decadal climate predictions (e.g. Smith et al., 2007; Keenlyside et al., 2008; Pohlmann et al., 2009), the focus of has now shifted toward their use for initialization of decadal climate predictions (Balmaseda et al.”
Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches (2014, background): “…improves the predictive skill of temperature in the North Atlantic (e.g., Smith et al. 2010; van Oldenborgh et al. 2012; Pohlmann et al. 2009; Keenlyside et al. 2008; Matei et al. 2012c; Doblas-Reyes et al. 2013; Yang et al. 2013; A. Rosati et al. 2014, unpublished manuscript; R. Msadek et…”
How does internal variability influence the ability of CMIP5 models to reproduce the recent trend in Southern Ocean sea ice extent (2012, background): “…prevent model biases but it avoids the initialization of the model with a state which is too260 far from its own climatology and thus limits model drift (e.g. Pierce et al., 2004; Smith et al., 2007; Troccoli and Palmer, 2007; Keenlyside et al., 2008; Pohlmann et al., 2009), as discussed in Sect.”
A decadal prediction case study: Late twentieth-century North Atlantic Ocean heat content (2012, background): “…that historical initialization can enhance model skill at predicting observed regional surface temperature variations on decadal time scales above the level that can be achieved using realistic external forcing alone (e.g., Smith et al. 2007; Keenlyside et al. 2008; Pohlmann et al. 2009).”