The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100
By S. K.C., Wolfgang Lutz. Global Environmental Change, 2017
1,183 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Highlights • We convert the general SSP storylines into demographic scenarios for 195 countries.• Human populations are cross-classified by age, gender and level of education.• Future fertility and hence population growth will depend on female education.• In the median assumptions scenario (SSP2) world population will peak around 2070.• By 2100 world population ranges from 6.9 (SSP1) to 12.6 billion (SSP3).
Subfields: Demography, Economics and Econometrics, Management Science and Operations Research
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/31dd056bc9d84c47dc2a63ad473e81004463a8b1
How researchers see this paper
The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.
In Demography
- Christophe Gouel
- Houssein Guimbard
- Elmar Kriegler
- Jesús Crespo Cuaresma
- Gunnar Luderer
- Marian Leimbach
- Niklas Roming
- R. Pietzcker
In Economics and Econometrics
- Gunnar Luderer
- Keywan Riahi
- D. P. Vuuren
- Elmar Kriegler
- Volker Krey
- D. V. van Vuuren
- Pete Smith
- Massimo Tavoni
In Management Science and Operations Research
- Christophe Gouel
- Houssein Guimbard
- Elmar Kriegler
- Robert J. Nicholls
- Felix Creutzig
- D. V. van Vuuren
- Gunnar Luderer
- Bas J. van Ruijven
Citations in the corpus
- Projections of declining fluvial sediment delivery to major deltas worldwide in response to climate change and anthropogenic stress (2019, methodology): “Model scenarios We constructed a total of 12 future environmental change scenarios based on the combination of four climate change pathways (Jones et al 2011, Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs), three socioeconomic change pathways (Murakami and Yamagata 2016, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,”
- Future growth patterns of world regions – A GDP scenario approach (2017, methodology): “As a measure of education we use the ‘‘Mean Years of Schooling’’ (MYS) provided jointly with the population projections from [8_TD$DIFF]KC and Lutz (2017).”
- Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm (2017, methodology): “Population (KC and Lutz, 2017) and GDP scenarios (Dellink et al., 2017) consistent with the SSP storylines were developed, and have been used here as input for the IMAGE Fig.”
- Description of the REMIND Model (Version 1.6) (2015, positive): “We base population and GDP inputs on the Shared Socio-economic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (KC and Lutz 2014; Dellink et al. 2015).”
- Long-term model-based projections of energy use and CO2 emissions from the global steel and cement industries (2016, methodology): “…low population growth, material extensive consumption) and SSP3 (Regional Rivalry, low economic growth, high population growth, material intensive consumption) (Chateau et al., 2015; Samir and Lutz, 2015; O’Neill et al., 2015) to estimate ranges of future consumption under these circumstances (Fig.”
- Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS): Global potential, investment preferences, and deployment barriers (2018, background): “Different pathways for population development and the resulting demand for food have also been explored [52].”
- Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment (2015, background): “For example, new population projections and scenarios come to different conclusions whether population growth will level off before 2100 [75, 76] or continue to grow [77] and how population will change in China or in fast-growing countries of Africa.”