Future growth patterns of world regions – A GDP scenario approach

By Marian Leimbach, Elmar Kriegler, Niklas Roming, Jana Schwanitz. 2017

279 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Abstract Global GDP projections for the 21st century are needed for the exploration of long-term global environmental problems, in particular climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions as well as climate change mitigation and adaption capacities strongly depend on growth of per capita income. However, long-term economic projections are highly uncertain. This paper provides five new long-term economic scenarios as part of the newly developed shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) which represent a set of widely diverging narratives. A method of GDP scenario building is presented that is based on assumptions about technological progress, and human and physical capital formation as major drivers of long-term GDP per capita growth. The impact of these drivers differs significantly between different shared socio-economic pathways and is traced back to the underlying narratives and the associated population and education scenarios. In a highly fragmented world, technological and knowledge spillovers are low. Hence, the growth impact of technological progress and human capital is comparatively low, and per capita income diverges between world regions. These factors play a much larger role in globalization scenarios, leading to higher economic growth and stronger convergence between world regions. At the global average, per capita GDP is projected to grow annually in a range between 1.0% (SSP3) and 2.8% (SSP5) from 2010 to 2100. While this covers a large portion of variety in future global economic growth projections, plausible lower and higher growth projections may still be conceivable. The GDP projections are put into the context of historic patterns of economic growth (stylized facts), and their sensitivity to key assumptions is explored.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/442dc54dc189b5512ab4c6bf06241a394e06ee0c

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Citations in the corpus

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview (2017, methodology): “, 2016a) and associated quantitative descriptions for key scenario drivers, such as population (KC and Lutz, 2016), economic growth (Crespo Cuaresma, 2016; Dellink et al., 2016; Leimbach et al., 2016), and urbanization (Jiang and O’Neill, 2016).”
Effect of Fertility Policy Changes on the Population Structure and Economy of China: From the Perspective of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (2019, methodology): “The parameters in the K calculation under different SSPs for China are described by Leimbach et al. (2017).”
The Inequality of Climate Change From 1.5 to 2°C of Global Warming (2018, background): “, 2017) ranging from a more sustainable future (SSP1) to a future with more regional rivalries (SSP3) we find that the inverse relationship between perceptibility of local climate change and the wealth of the location (Dellink et al., 2017; Leimbach et al., 2017) remains a robust characteristic.”
Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation (2017, methodology): “Several of these generalizable historical patterns describing economic growth have been tested against regional GDP projections used to generate future emission scenarios (75).”