Earlier Web Usage Statistics as Predictors of Later Citation Impact

By Tim Brody, Stevan Harnad. J. Assoc. Inf. Sci. Technol., 2005

425 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Abstract: The use of citation counts to assess the impact of research articles is well established. However, the citation impact of an article can only be measured several years after it has been published. As research articles are increasingly accessed through the Web, the number of times an article is downloaded can be instantly recorded and counted. One would expect the number of times an article is read to be related both to the number of times it is cited and to how old the article is. This paper analyses how short-term Web usage impact predicts medium-term citation impact. The physics e-print archive -- arXiv.org -- is used to test this.

Subfields: Information Systems, Statistical and Nonlinear Physics, Statistics and Probability

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/30a8ecb1e211775277a6179d63ba5f9a37d44663

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Citations in the corpus

A Principal Component Analysis of 39 Scientific Impact Measures (2009, background): “It has in fact been shown that present usage rates predict future citation rates [29].”
Self-Selected or Mandated, Open Access Increases Citation Impact for Higher Quality Research (2010, background): “(Higher download counts earlier on have been found to be correlated with, hence predictive of, increased citation counts later; [38].”
Bibliometrics to webometrics (2008, background): “For instance, early readership data seems to be moderately good at predicting future citation counts for an article [54].”
Do Altmetrics Work? Twitter and Ten Other Social Web Services (2013, background): “, [16],[17],[41]), is difficult as reliable usage data is only available for recent documents for which the citation window will be too small.”
Ten-Year Cross-Disciplinary Comparison of the Growth of Open Access and How it Increases Research Citation Impact (2005, background): “(2) The second empirical reason is that OA has also been shown to increase article downloads [1,?], and that increased downloads are in turn correlated with increased citations [2, 17, 19].”
How the Scientific Community Reacts to Newly Submitted Preprints: Article Downloads, Twitter Mentions, and Citations (2012, background): “it has been found that download statistics can predict future citation impact [10], suggesting that online readership may be an important factor in driving scholarly citations.”
The Access/Impact Problem and the Green and Gold Roads to Open Access: An Update (2008, background): “4.(3) These graphs show the time course of”
Predictive effects of structural variation on citation counts (2012, background): “An article that has been frequently downloaded or viewed online is likely to become highly cited later (Brody&Harnad, 2005; Kurtz et al., 2005).”