Defining Uncertainty: A Conceptual Basis for Uncertainty Management in Model-Based Decision Support

By Warren E. Walker, P. Harremoës, Jan Rotmans, J. P. van der Sluijs, M. V. Asselt, P. Janssen, M. K. Krauss. 2003

2,193 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Artificial Intelligence, Management Science and Operations Research

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/231644f00d9a37c04a047992302e8af64dec9ab7

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In Artificial Intelligence

In Management Science and Operations Research

Citations in the corpus

Ten iterative steps in development and evaluation of environmental models (2006, background): “Uncertainty in models (Walker et al., 2003) stems from incomplete system understanding (which processes to include, which processes interact); from imprecise, finite and often sparse data and measurements; and from uncertainty in the baseline inputs and conditions for model runs, including…”
A Survey on Trust Management for Mobile Ad Hoc Networks (2011, background): “Note that under each research category, we will survey existing works in chronological order.”
Conceptualizing Energy Security (2012, background): “More detailed characterizations of uncertainty can for instance be found in (Walker et al. 2003).”
A critical review of integrated urban water modelling - Urban drainage and beyond (2014, background): “Furthermore, the nature of this uncertainty is classed as either reducible ‘epistemic’ uncertainty e due to imperfect knowledge e or irreducible ‘aleatoric’ (also known as ‘stochastic’ or ‘ontological’) uncertainty e due to intrinsic natural variability (Walker et al., 2003; Refsgaard et al., 2007).”
Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty (2013, background): “It can range from low, well characterized uncertainty, to deep uncertainty, and even recognized ignorance [4,6,108].”
Does climate policy need probabilities (2003, background): “For example, Walker et al. (2003) classify uncertainty according to three dimensions: its 'location' (where it occurs; e.g., expert judgement, models, data), its 'level' (where uncertainty manifests itself on the gradual spectrum from determinism, through probability and possibility, to ignorance)…”
Understanding service uncertainties in industrial product–service system cost estimation (2011, methodology): “Researchers have been attracted with the terms’ fuzziness, randomness, the doubtful nature it creates and the lack of confidence it causes [15, 90, 115 ].”
Working Towards Sustainable Development in the Face of Uncertainty and Incomplete Knowledge (2007, background): “Pellizzoni, 2003 ; Walker & Harremoes, 2003 ): • ”
Uncertainty in the environmental modelling process - A framework and guidance (2007, background): “Uncertainty and associated terms such as error, risk and ignorance are defined and interpreted differently by different authors, see Walker et al. (2003) for a review.”
Exploring the quality of evidence for complex and contested policy decisions (2008, background): “( van der Sluijs et al. 2005; Refsgaard et al. 2006) or a model quality checklist (Risbey et al. 2005)”
An uncertain future, deep uncertainty, scenarios, robustness and adaptation: How do they fit together? (2016, background): “3) with broad policy scopes (Walker and Haasnoot, 2011), the flexibility required of the models to deal with a range of disciplines and related drivers and driver extents increases (Van Delden and Hagen-Zanker, 2009; Van Delden et al., 2011).”