The trouble with overconfidence.

By Don A. Moore, Paul J. Healy. Psychology Review, 2008

2,052 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Applied Psychology, General Decision Sciences, Safety Research

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/f6a9098a00eb8a6aa65576e8cf07b46850ce353c

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Citations in the corpus

Top Ten Behavioral Biases in Project Management: An Overview (2021, background): “…“illusion of certainty” in (a) overestimating how much they understand and (b) underestimating the role of chance events and lack of knowledge, in effect underestimating the variability of events they are exposed to in their lives (Moore & Healy, 2008; Pallier et al., 2002; Proeger & Meub, 2014).”
Self-confidence and strategic behavior (2017, neutral): “…to distort reported confidence, the mean reported confidence about being in the top 50% is well above 50 (63.4), consistent with overconfidence, or over-placement (Moore and Healy 2008).2 In both strategic treatments, receivers are very responsive to the reported confidence of the senders.”
How to measure metacognition (2014, background): “We do not aim to cover the literature on probability judgments here; instead we refer the reader to several comprehensive reviews (Lichtenstein et al., 1982; Keren, 1991; Harvey, 1997; Moore and Healy, 2008).”
Too arrogant for their own good? Why and when narcissists dismiss advice (2015, background): “For example, overconfidence refers to an excessive conviction in the accuracy of one's beliefs (Moore & Healy, 2008), which is similar to narcissists' inflated beliefs about their abilities and knowledge.”
Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations (2018, neutral): “On the one hand, individuals may wish to stay close to consensus forecasts (Morris and Shin 2002, Fuhrer 2019).”
The detrimental effects of power on confidence, advice taking, and accuracy (2011, background): “Moreover, when people feel confident in their own accuracy, they are likely to also perceive that they are more accurate relative to others (e.g., Chambers & Windschitl, 2004; Krueger & Mueller, 2002; Larrick, Burson, & Soll, 2007; Moore & Healy, 2008; Moore & Small, 2007).”
Psychology-based Models of Asset Prices and Trading Volume (2018, background): “The term “overconfidence” refers to a number of related but distinct psychological phenomena (Moore and Healy, 2008).”
An Unlucky Feeling: Overconfidence and Noisy Feedback (2010, methodology): “Rather than simply asking participants to guess how many questions they answered correctly, we elicited the entire istribution of their beliefs, using an interface and incentive scheme similar to those used by Moore and Healy (2008) and il and Rao (2010).”
INSIGHTFUL OR WISHFUL: Lawyers' Ability to Predict Case Outcomes (2010, background): “Recently, psychological researchers distinguished three forms of overconfidence: overestimation, overplacement, and overprecision (Moore & Healy, 2008).”