Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions

By Jonathan M. Read, J. Bridgen, Derek A. T. Cummings, A. Ho, Chris P. Jewell. medRxiv, 2020

908 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Since first identified, the epidemic scale of the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in Wuhan, China, has increased rapidly, with cases arising across China and other countries and regions. using a transmission model, we estimate a basic reproductive number of 3.11 (95%CI, 2.39-4.13); 58-76% of transmissions must be prevented to stop increasing; Wuhan case ascertainment of 5.0% (3.6-7.4); 21022 (11090-33490) total infections in Wuhan 1 to 22 January.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Infectious Diseases, Modeling and Simulation

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/f63ba2600f07b38b727a77066ed5bc99fc6d50f9

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Citations in the corpus

Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China (2020, result): “3 for the discussed provinces, consistent with estimates found in previous early assessment studies (4, 8, 21, 22).”
Modelling the COVID-19 epidemic and implementation of population-wide interventions in Italy (2020, neutral): “5) [12, 13, 14].”
Preliminary estimation of the basic reproduction number of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China, from 2019 to 2020: A data-driven analysis in the early phase of the outbreak (2020, neutral): “However, many of existing online preprints estimate the mean R0 ranging from 2 to 5 [3, 22-24], which is largely consistent with our results.”
Quarantine alone or in combination with other public health measures to control COVID‐19: a rapid review (2020, neutral): “Read 2020 Read JM, Bridgen JR, Cummings DA, Ho A, Jewell CP.”
A systematic review of antibody mediated immunity to coronaviruses: kinetics, correlates of protection, and association with severity (2020, background): “Abstracts were classified as (1) study of antibody immune responses to human coronavirus, (2) study of human coronavirus, but not about antibody immunity, (3) study in nonhumans or basic biological study of virus–antibody interactions not characterizing actual humans, (4) study in humans not about c”
Pathogenicity and transmissibility of 2019-nCoV—A quick overview and comparison with other emerging viruses (2020, background): “0, indicating that 72e75% of transmissions must be prevented in order to stop the increasing trend [12], however, the authors assumed that there is little heterogeneity in reproductive numbers, so the true R0 value could be smaller.”
Covasim: An agent-based model of COVID-19 dynamics and interventions (2020, neutral): “…SEIR model to determine the global impact of COVID-19 and the effect of various social distancing interventions to control transmission and reduce health system burden; Read et al. (2020) developed an SEIR model to estimate the basic…”
Changes in contact patterns shape the dynamics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China (2020, background): “In the early phases of COVID-19 spread in Wuhan, before interventions were put in place, R0 values were estimated to range between 2.0 and 3.5 (12) (13) (14) (15) (16) (17) (18) .”
Modified SEIR and AI prediction of the epidemics trend of COVID-19 in China under public health interventions (2020, background): “The effectiveness and necessity of such undertakings have been questioned, particularly with reports that the Greater Wuhan quarantine may have been instituted too late (13,14).”
Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period (2020, result): “We assumed that the incubation period and infectious period for SARS-CoV-2 were the same as the best-fit values for the other betacoronaviruses (5.0 and 4.9 days, respectively; see Table S7 ), in broad agreement with other estimates (23) (24) (25) .”