Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 through the postpandemic period

By Stephen M. Kissler, Christine Tedijanto, E. Goldstein, Yonatan H. Grad, Marc Lipsitch. Science, 2020

2,481 citations recorded by the source corpus.

What happens next? Four months into the severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak, we still do not know enough about postrecovery immune protection and environmental and seasonal influences on transmission to predict transmission dynamics accurately. However, we do know that humans are seasonally afflicted by other, less severe coronaviruses. Kissler et al. used existing data to build a deterministic model of multiyear interactions between existing coronaviruses, with a focus on the United States, and used this to project the potential epidemic dynamics and pressures on critical care capacity over the next 5 years. The long-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 strongly depends on immune responses and immune cross-reactions between the coronaviruses, as well as the timing of introduction of the new virus into a population. One scenario is that a resurgence in SARS-CoV-2 could occur as far into the future as 2025. Science, this issue p. 860 If immunity wanes, SARS-CoV-2 could cause recurrent wintertime peaks and require sustained surveillance and intermittent social distancing. It is urgent to understand the future of severe acute respiratory syndrome–coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission. We used estimates of seasonality, immunity, and cross-immunity for human coronavirus OC43 (HCoV-OC43) and HCoV-HKU1 using time-series data from the United States to inform a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We projected that recurrent wintertime outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 will probably occur after the initial, most severe pandemic wave. Absent other interventions, a key metric for the success of social distancing is whether critical care capacities are exceeded. To avoid this, prolonged or intermittent social distancing may be necessary into 2022. Additional interventions, including expanded critical care capacity and an effective therapeutic, would improve the success of intermittent distancing and hasten the acquisition of herd immunity. Longitudinal serological studies are urgently needed to determine the extent and duration of immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained because a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024.

Subfields: Infectious Diseases, Modeling and Simulation

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/1ed719cd5dc1c519547fb7266bdafc63f11c225c

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Citations in the corpus

The social crisis aftermath: tourist well-being during the COVID-19 outbreak (2020, background): “Given the possibility of resurgence in contagion in the foreseeable future (Kissler et al., 2020), it is imperative to pay greater attention to how pandemic-related stigmatization leads to malaise and loss in well-being.”
COVIDGR Dataset and COVID-SDNet Methodology for Predicting COVID-19 Based on Chest X-Ray Images (2020, background): “The trends are not clear yet but some research conﬁrm that this problem may persist until 2024 [1].”
The Persuasive Effect of Fox News: Non-Compliance with Social Distancing During the Covid-19 Pandemic (2020, background): “The persuasive effect of a leading news media channel could have harmful consequences for the public if viewers disregard the social-distancing practices recommended by leading health experts and health organizations (CDC, 2020b; Kissler et al., 2020a).”
COVID-19 and digital disruption in UK universities: afflictions and affordances of emergency online migration (2020, background): “Worse now, it appears that the virus must be tolerated on an indefinite basis (Kissler et al. 2020).”
Impacts of COVID-19 on Global Supply Chains: Facts and Perspectives (2020, background): “The impacts of COVID-19 have been far-reaching, and, according to some analysts, they will not disappear before the end of 2022 [5].”
Immunological memory to SARS-CoV-2 assessed for up to 8 months after infection (2021, background): “The findings have implications for immunity against secondary COVID-19, and thus the potential future course of the pandemic (41, 42).”
The Importance of Respiratory Rate Monitoring: From Healthcare to Sport and Exercise (2020, background): “Furthermore, pneumonia outbreaks, as the pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19 disease), constitute major medical, social, and economic challenges worldwide [93].”
COVID-19: Transmission, prevention, and potential therapeutic opportunities (2020, neutral): “the world population and kill over 40 million people [185,186].”
Targets of T Cell Responses to SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus in Humans with COVID-19 Disease and Unexposed Individuals (2020, neutral): “…the severity of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, it has been modeled that any degree of cross-protective coronavirus immunity in the population could have a very substantial impact on the overall course of the pandemic, and the dynamics of the epidemiology for years to come (Kissler et al., 2020).”
Phenotype and kinetics of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells in COVID-19 patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome (2020, background): “However, they potentially contain cross-reactive T cells induced by circulating seasonal ‘common cold’ coronaviruses (12).”
COVID-19 lockdowns cause global air pollution declines (2020, background): “(24) that are expected to continue for some time (25), reduced NO2 emissions and therefore exposure levels may be sustained over the near future.”