Forecasting the Effects of Global Warming on Biodiversity

By D. Botkin, H. Saxe, Miguel B. Araújo, R. Betts, Richard Bradshaw, T. Cedhagen, P. Chesson, Terence P. Dawson, Julie R. Etterson, Daniel P. Faith and 9 more. 2007

619 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Ecological Modeling, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Nature and Landscape Conservation

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/dba98abcf7289c10f82cba8a0cba72134c8ac629

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Citations in the corpus

Cryopreserved storage of clonal germplasm in the USDA National Plant Germplasm System (2017, background): “Diseases or insect attack can also decimate living collections, and these may become more common with climate change and its unknown effects on living organisms (Botkin et al. 2007; Nicotra et al. 2010; Dullinger et al. 2012; Dullinger et al. 2013).”
Historical bird and terrestrial mammal extinction rates and causes (2012, methodology): “…effects (e.g. Brook et al., 2008; Stork, 2010), we would note first that many such forecasts have been based on the species–area curve (critiqued by Botkin et al., 2007) and second that before extrapolating to unknown future conditions it would be helpful to properly understand existing…”
Conservation biogeography of freshwater fishes: recent progress and future challenges (2010, methodology): “Second, using SDR models to predict extinction events requires one to extrapolate beyond the range of their empirical data (Botkin et al., 2007) and to assume that fishes will not rapidly adapt to new hydrologic conditions.”
Adapt or disperse: understanding species persistence in a changing world (2010, background): “Estimates of species loss due to climate warming range from 3% to 78% of species going to become extinct (Thomas et al., 2004; Thuiller et al., 2004; but see Botkin et al., 2007).”
Joint Species Distribution Modeling: Dimension Reduction Using Dirichlet Processes (2017, methodology): “…affect the distribution and abundance of species and to predict biodiversity, including responses to climate change (Midgley et al., 2002; Guisan and Thuiller, 2005; Gelfand et al., 2006; Iverson et al., 2008; Botkin et al., 2007; Fischlin et al., 2007; McMahon et al., 2011; Thuiller et al., 2011).”
Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios (2009, background): “On the other hand, bioclimate envelope modelling is among the few available quantitative tools to predict potential ecological changes resulting from shifts in species distributions (Botkin et al. 2007).”
Too hot to handle? Phenological and life‐history responses to simulated climate change of the southern green stink bug Nezara viridula (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae) (2010, background): “There is a growing demand for accurate forecasts of biotic responses to climate change and concern about the effects on biological diversity as well as the future of humankind’s well-being (Botkin et al., 2007; IPCC, 2007; Lawler et al., 2009).”
Predicting species responses to climate change: demography and climate microrefugia in California valley oak (Quercus lobata) (2012, background): “There has been considerable debate about bioclimate model assumptions, limitations and reliability (Pearson & Dawson, 2003; Thuiller, 2004; Hampe, 2004; Guisan & Thuiller, 2005; Martinez-Meyer, 2005; reviewed in Heikkinen et al., 2006; Austin, 2007; Botkin et al., 2007; Thuiller et al., 2008) and ca”
Geographical genetics and the conservation of forest trees (2009, background): “, 2006; Geburek and Konrad, 2008; Newton, 2008) and for the conservation of biodiversity in the face of future climate warming (Botkin et al., 2007; Pertoldi et al., 2007; Reusch and Wood, 2007).”
Plant communities at the periphery of the Atlantic rain forest: rare-species bias and its risks for conservation. (2009, neutral): “Meanwhile, global change remains a major issue and forecasts about species extinctions and ecosystem change are increasingly pessimistic (e.g. Parmesan and Yohe, 2003; Root et al., 2003), albeit some controversy (Botkin et al., 2007; Scarano, 2007a).”
Climate change threatens European conservation areas (2011, methodology): “Although specific uses of BEM have been criticized (e.g. Botkin et al. 2007), models including a thorough treatment of algorithmic uncertainties followed by careful interpretation of results remain a useful tool for forecasting continental-wide impacts of climate change on large numbers of species…”
Projecting climate change impacts on species distributions in megadiverse South African Cape and Southwest Australian Floristic Regions: Opportunities and challenges (2009, positive): “…two decades correlative species distribution models (SDMs) have been increasingly used in conservation planning and more recently have become the most commonly used tool for predicting the impacts of climate change on biodiversity (Thomas et al. 2004; Guisan & Thuiller 2005; Botkin et al. 2007).”
The state of plant population modelling in light of environmental change (2008, background): “In fact, current projections of species responses to changing environment and land use mostly rely on phenomenological models of species distributions (such as habitat models or climate envel- ope models) (Thomas et al., 2004; Thuiller, 2004; Botkin et al., 2007).”
Synthesis of pattern and process in biodiversity conservation assessment: a flexible whole‐landscape modelling framework (2010, methodology): “This again opens up potential for linking this component to other established modelling techniques or tools, in this case to techniques for forecasting shifts in species or community distributions under specified climatechange scenarios (e.g. Botkin et al., 2007).”
Paleoecology meets genetics: deciphering past vegetational dynamics (2009, background): “Fossil records also contribute to our understanding of large-scale patterns of biodiversity in the modern landscape and validate model projections of diversity changes (Botkin et al. 2007).”