Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios
By Wwl Cheung, Vicky W. Y. Lam, J. Sarmiento, Kelly A. Kearney, R. Watson, Daniel Pauly. 2009
1,593 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Climate change can impact the pattern of marine biodiversity through changes in species’ distributions. However, global studies on climate change impacts on ocean biodiversity have not been performed so far. Our paper aims to investigate the global patterns of such impacts by projecting the distributional ranges of a sample of 1066 exploited marine fish and invertebrates for 2050 using a newly developed dynamic bioclimate envelope model. Our projections show that climate change may lead to numerous local extinction in the sub-polar regions, the tropics and semi-enclosed seas. Simultaneously, species invasion is projected to be most intense in the Arctic and the Southern Ocean. Together, they result in dramatic species turnovers of over 60% of the present biodiversity, implying ecological disturbances that potentially disrupt ecosystem services. Our projections can be viewed as a set of hypothesis for future analytical and empirical studies.
Subfields: Ecology, Global and Planetary Change
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/342a6c6c6aa1a28d955297b683b31fa9211628c5
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In Ecology
In Global and Planetary Change
Citations in the corpus
- Tropicalization of fish assemblages in temperate biogeographic transition zones (2014, background): “Latitudinal range shifts in marine species have already been widely described (Perry et al. 2005, Cheung et al. 2009, 2012, Hawkins et al. 2009, Figueira & Booth 2010, Nicastro et al. 2013, Wernberg et al. 2013) and have been shown to affect ecosystems and fisheries (Sumaila et al. 2011, Cheung et…”
- Climate-change induced tropicalisation of marine communities in Western Australia (2012, background): “Overall, change in distribution area and primary productivity will likely lead to re-distribution of potential catch (Cheung et al. 2008a, 2009, 2011a; Brown et al. 2010) and this redistribution needs to be reflected in spatial management arrangement.”
- Interesting times: winners, losers, and system shifts under climate change around Australia (2011, background): “Together, these shifting pressures are likely to result in significant shifts in species distributions (Cheung et al., 2009) and altered foraging and reproductive success (Bograd et al.”
- Restructuring the Sea: profound shifts in the world's most invaded marine ecosystem (2013, background): “…permitting the invasion of species previously excluded by cooler mediterranean waters (Ben Rais Lasram et al., 2010; Raitsos et al., 2010; see also Cheung et al., 2009 and Sorte et al., 2010 for a broader global picture of the exacerbation of invasions owing to latitudinal shifts mediated by…”
- Climate change effects on fishes and fisheries: towards a cause-and-effect understanding. (2010, background): “Recent modelling results for >800 commercially important marine fish species (Cheung et al., 2009) suggested that climate change could lead to numerous local extinction events by the year 2050, particularly in subpolar regions, the tropics and semi-enclosed seas (e.”
- Multi-model ensemble projections of climate change effects on global marine biodiversity (2015, methodology): “…of latitudinal shift in the marine environment than on land that have been observed (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003) and predicted elsewhere using a single SDM (Cheung et al., 2009), likely due to higher velocities of climate change (Burrows et al., 2011) and lower constraints on dispersal in the sea.”
- Behavioral thermoregulation in a tropical gastropod: links to climate change scenarios (2011, background): “…dominate (Pearson & Dawson, 2003), bioclimatic envelope models have shown temperature-induced shifts in the geographic ranges of a variety of marine invertebrates, leading to abundance and biodiversity pattern alteration within coastal marine systems (Hawkins et al., 2008; Cheung et al., 2009).”
- Krill, climate, and contrasting future scenarios for Arctic and Antarctic fisheries (2014, background): “Climate change is expected to affect fish stocks directly by causing major geographic shifts in distribution and abundance over the next 50–100 years (Barker and Knorr, 2007; Brander, 2007; Cheung et al., 2009), and recent evidence shows that changes have already occurred in benthic community compos”
- Benthos distribution modelling and its relevance for marine ecosystem management (2015, background): “, 2011), and the prediction of distribution changes in response to climate change (Cheung et al., 2009).”