Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration
By Rob J Hyndman, H. Booth. 2008
247 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Age-sex-specific population forecasts are derived through stochastic population renewal using forecasts of mortality, fertility and net migration. Functional data models with time series coefficients are used to model age-specific mortality and fertility rates. As detailed migration data are lacking, net migration by age and sex is estimated as the difference between historic annual population data and successive populations one year ahead derived from a projection using fertility and mortality data. This estimate, which includes error, is also modeled using a functional data model. The three models involve different strengths of the general Box-Cox transformation chosen to minimise out-of-sample forecast error. Uncertainty is estimated from the model, with an adjustment to ensure the one-step-forecast variances are equal to those obtained with historical data. The three models are then used in the Monte Carlo simulation of future fertility, mortality and net migration, which are combined using the cohort-component method to obtain age-specific forecasts of the population by sex. The distribution of forecasts provides probabilistic prediction intervals. The method is demonstrated by making 20-year forecasts using Australian data for the period 1921-2003.
Subfields: Demography, General Health Professions, Management Science and Operations Research
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/412c33941f94971f447413fb906cd8e393bb16a2
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In Demography
- M. Myrskylä
- Michael Eichler
- Emilio Zagheni
- Shahid Ullah
- Caroline F. Finch
- J. Goldstein
- C. Schmertmann
- Anne van Delft
In General Health Professions
- Michael Eichler
- Emilio Zagheni
- Shahid Ullah
- Caroline F. Finch
- J. Goldstein
- M. Myrskylä
- C. Schmertmann
- Anne van Delft
In Management Science and Operations Research
- Michael Eichler
- Emilio Zagheni
- Shahid Ullah
- Caroline F. Finch
- J. Goldstein
- M. Myrskylä
- C. Schmertmann
Citations in the corpus
- Locally Stationary Functional Time Series (2016, background): “In demography, mortality and fertility rates are given as a function of age (e.g. Erbas, Hyndman and Gertig, 2007; Hyndman and Ullah, 2007; Hyndman and Booth, 2008), while in geophysical sciences, magnometers record the strength and direction of the magnetic field every five seconds.”
- Bayesian Forecasting of Cohort Fertility (2014, methodology): “Despite these difficulties, there is a sophisticated literature, parallel to that for mortality, on forecasting period fertility rates and the completed fertility of cohorts (Bloom 1982; de Beer 1985; Thompson et al. 1989; Chen and Morgan 1991; Lee 1993; Li and Wu 2003; Goldstein 2008; Hyndman and B”
- Applications of functional data analysis: A systematic review (2013, methodology): “Demography Mortality, fertility and migration rates Weighted penalized regression spline FPCA State space model [60]”