Synthetic Control Methods: Never Use All Pre-Intervention Outcomes Together With Covariates

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The Costs of Economic Nationalism: Evidence from the Brexit Experiment* (2019, unknown): “Including the covariates in the optimization di � ers from Kaul et al. (2018) who have raised concerns about including all pre-intervention outcomes together with covariates when using the SCM. 12 In addition, Section 3.1 shows that the non-targeted time paths of other economic aggregates in our…”
On the role of covariates in the synthetic control method (2019, methodology): “While this is a common procedure in SC applications, Kaul et al. (2018) show that including all pre-treatment outcome lags as predictors renders all other covariates irrelevant in the optimization procedure suggested by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003) and Abadie et al. (2010). While this may appear a ”
The Augmented Synthetic Control Method (2018, background): “For instance, Kaul et al. (2018) point out that SCM applications commonly include all lagged outcomes in Z.”