Numeracy, Ratio Bias, and Denominator Neglect in Judgments of Risk and Probability.

By Valerie F. Reyna, Charles J. Brainerd. 2008

486 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: General Decision Sciences, Statistics and Probability

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/c56eee5d0f068102e2bc05f0f6131c352a5b224c

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Citations in the corpus

Factors associated with uptake of vaccination against pandemic influenza: a systematic review. (2011, background): “…the estimates of threat should be presented using relative risk (Han, Klein et al. 2009) and the rates of complications should be presented for both groups (pregnant and non-pregnant), using natural frequencies (Reyna and Brainerd 2008; Reyna, Nelson et al. 2009), as opposed to probability frames.”
On Human Predictions with Explanations and Predictions of Machine Learning Models: A Case Study on Deception Detection (2018, background): “This observation echoes prior work on numeracy that suggests that average humans and even doctors struggle with interpreting and acting on numbers [6, 62, 63, 69].”
The Cognitive Reflection Test as a predictor of performance on heuristics-and-biases tasks (2011, methodology): “This probabilistic reasoning task was a marble game that was modeled on a task introduced by Kirkpatrick and Epstein (1992; see also Denes-Raj & Epstein, 1994; Reyna, 1991; Reyna & Brainerd, 1994, 2008 ).”
Beyond Comprehension (2012, background): “…pictographs and other graphical displays that allow each class in a part–whole relation to be represented discretely, Garcia-Retamero & Galesic, 2009; Reyna & Brainerd, 2008; this must be done carefully as all visual representations do not work equally well; see reviews by Fagerlin, Ubel, Smith,…”
Heuristics and Biases as Measures of Critical Thinking: Associations with Cognitive Ability and Thinking Dispositions (2008, unknown): “This probabilistic reasoning task is a marble game that was modeled on a task introduced by Kirkpatrick and Epstein (1992; see also Denes-Raj & Epstein, 1994; Reyna, 1991; Reyna & Brainerd, 1994, 2007).”
Neurocognitive Architectures and the Nonsymbolic Foundations of Fractions Understanding (2016, unknown): “…both children and adults – including teachers and highly educated professionals – struggle to understand fractions (Lipkus, Samsa, & Rimer, 2001; National Mathematics Advisory Panel, 2008; Newton, 2008; Post, Harel, Behr, & Lesh, 1991; Reyna & Brainerd, 2008; Stigler, Givvin, & Thompson, 2010).”
A Review of the Literature: Fraction Instruction for Struggling Learners in Mathematics (2011, background): “…in the contemporary American workforce” (NMAP, 2008, p. 3–1) for completing day-to-day activities (e.g., modifying recipes, ordering supplies) and for making important decisions such as assessing risks associated with medical treatments (Reyna & Brainerd, 2008; Subramaniam & Verma, 2009).”
Presenting quantitative information about decision outcomes: a risk communication primer for patient decision aid developers (2013, background): “, framing, mood states, labels used to interpret quantitative results and feedback from others) [33,116], insensitivity to variations in risk magnitude (especially when multiple numbers are shown at once) [117], and greater denominator neglect [64,118].”
Survey of computational intelligence as basis to big flood management: challenges, research directions and future work (2018, methodology): “A risk estimation model was proposed as alternative approach to solve the fuzzy treatment risk (Reyna & Brainerd, 2008).”
How numeracy influences risk comprehension and medical decision making. (2009, unknown): “Additional research is needed to further elucidate the presentation formats that are most beneficial for individuals at different levels of numerical ability (but for initial hypotheses based on research, see Fagerlin, Ubel, et al., 2007; Nelson et al., 2008; Reyna & Brainerd, 2008).”