The Century Ahead: Searching for Sustainability

By P. Raskin, Christi Electris, R. Rosen. 2010

125 citations recorded by the source corpus.

The global future lies before us as a highly uncertain and contested landscape with numerous perils along the way. This study explores possible pathways to sustainability by considering in quantitative detail four contrasting scenarios for the twenty-first century. The analysis reveals vividly the risks of conventional development approaches and the real danger of socio-ecological descent. Nonetheless, the paper underscores that a Great Transition scenario—turning toward a civilization of enhanced human well-being and environmental resilience—remains an option, and identifies a suite of strategic and value changes for getting there. A fundamental shift in the development paradigm is found to be an urgent necessity for assuring a sustainable future and, as well, a hopeful opportunity for creating a world of enriched lives, human amity, and a healthy ecosphere.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/c25ba05ab5ed6342a532652b4a7e5f29d81e2efa

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Economics and Econometrics

1. Graham M. Turner
2. Adrian Smith
3. Andrew Stirling
4. John Thompson
5. I. Scoones
6. Carl Folke
7. J. Rockström
8. F. Kern

In Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law

1. Carl Folke
2. Graham M. Turner
3. P. Olsson
4. Adrian Smith
5. I. Scoones
6. J. Rockström
7. Adam Rose
8. Fikret Berkes

In Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

1. Graham M. Turner
2. Adrian Smith
3. Andrew Stirling
4. P. Raskin
5. I. Scoones
6. Carl Folke
7. J. Rockström

Citations in the corpus

• Assessing and Modelling the Influence of Household Characteristics on Per Capita Water Consumption (2016, background): “Each one of these scenarios tells a different plausible story of the twenty-first century with varying patterns of resource use, environmental impacts, and social conditions (Raskin et al. 2010).”
• Scenario Archetypes: Converging rather than Diverging Themes (2011, unknown): “‘MF is constructed as a future in which free market optimism remains dominant and proves well-founded [33]’.”
• Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century (2017, unknown): “The extent to which environmental sustainability and human and economic development are interlinked has been a core concern of global futures studies conducted by, e.g., the Global Scenario Group (Raskin et al., 2010), the Global Environmental Outlook (UNEP, 2003) and the Millenium Ecosystem Assessm”
• On the Cusp of Global Collapse? Updated Comparison of The Limits to Growth with Historical Data (2012, result): “This contrasts with other forecasts for the global future (e.g., Raskin et al. 2010, Randers 2012a), which indicate a longer or indeterminate period before global collapse; Randers for ex ample forecasts collapse after 2050, largely based around climate change impacts, with features akin to the LtG…”
• Transforming Innovation for Sustainability (2012, background): “However, delivering on these requires a radically new approach to innovation, one that gives far greater recognition and power to grassroots actors and processes, involving them within an inclusive, multi-scale innovation politics.”