Scenario Archetypes: Converging rather than Diverging Themes
By D. Hunt, Raziyeh Farmani, R. Lombardi, Stuart Atkinson, A. Barber, M. Barnes, C. Boyko, Julie Brown, John R. Bryson, David Butler and 15 more. 2011
126 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF) research has identified a substantial set (>450) of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized) based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG) in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions) and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP). It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW) are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political) that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.
Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Management Science and Operations Research
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/b85babb9f7b729bee06605498c29c2f0454c3246
How researchers see this paper
The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.
In Economics and Econometrics
In Management Science and Operations Research
Citations in the corpus
- New European socio-economic scenarios for climate change research: operationalising concepts to extend the shared socio-economic pathways (2018, background): “As a result, the number of scenarios in climate change research and beyond has increased strongly (see Hunt et al. 2012), together with new concepts, tools, and methods to Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1400-0) contains…”