Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways
By Shilpa Rao, Zbigniew Klimont, Steven J. Smith, R. Dingenen, F. Dentener, L. Bouwman, Keywan Riahi, Markus Amann, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, D. P. Vuuren and 17 more. 2017
413 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we present methodology and results for air pollutant emissions in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We first present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high, central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21st century. These narratives are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models. The resulting pollutant emission trajectories under the SSP scenarios cover a wider range than the scenarios used in previous international climate model comparisons. In the SSP3 and SSP4 scenarios, where economic, institutional and technological limitations slow air quality improvements, global pollutant emissions over the 21st century can be comparable to current levels. Pollutant emissions in the SSP1 scenarios fall to low levels due to the assumption of technological advances and successful global action to control emissions.
Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Economics and Econometrics, Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/e7f3bb55c7d3080a18ac60b2fde28fdb509a0ace
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In Atmospheric Science
In Economics and Econometrics
- D. V. van Vuuren
- Bas J. van Ruijven
- Shinichiro Fujimori
- Elmar Kriegler
- H. Meijl
- Andrzej Tabeau
- Keywan Riahi
- R. Pietzcker
Citations in the corpus
- Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm (2017, background): “More detailed comparison of the marker scenarios are published for land (Popp et al., 2017), energy (Bauer et al., 2017) and emissions (Rao et al., 2017).”
- Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives (2017, background): “The overview including overall GHG emissions is given by Riahi et al. (2017), whereas land-use and competition (incl. bio-energy) is analyzed by Popp et al. (2017) and air pollution implications are explored by Rao et al. (2017).”