Projection of the year 2050 burden of diabetes in the US adult population: dynamic modeling of incidence, mortality, and prediabetes prevalence
By J. Boyle, T. Thompson, E. Gregg, L. Barker, D. Williamson. Population Health Metrics, 2010
1,350 citations recorded by the source corpus.
BackgroundPeople with diabetes can suffer from diverse complications that seriously erode quality of life. Diabetes, costing the United States more than $174 billion per year in 2007, is expected to take an increasingly large financial toll in subsequent years. Accurate projections of diabetes burden are essential to policymakers planning for future health care needs and costs.MethodsUsing data on prediabetes and diabetes prevalence in the United States, forecasted incidence, and current US Census projections of mortality and migration, the authors constructed a series of dynamic models employing systems of difference equations to project the future burden of diabetes among US adults. A three-state model partitions the US population into no diabetes, undiagnosed diabetes, and diagnosed diabetes. A four-state model divides the state of "no diabetes" into high-risk (prediabetes) and low-risk (normal glucose) states. A five-state model incorporates an intervention designed to prevent or delay diabetes in adults at high risk.ResultsThe authors project that annual diagnosed diabetes incidence (new cases) will increase from about 8 cases per 1,000 in 2008 to about 15 in 2050. Assuming low incidence and relatively high diabetes mortality, total diabetes prevalence (diagnosed and undiagnosed cases) is projected to increase from 14% in 2010 to 21% of the US adult population by 2050. However, if recent increases in diabetes incidence continue and diabetes mortality is relatively low, prevalence will increase to 33% by 2050. A middle-ground scenario projects a prevalence of 25% to 28% by 2050. Intervention can reduce, but not eliminate, increases in diabetes prevalence.ConclusionsThese projected increases are largely attributable to the aging of the US population, increasing numbers of members of higher-risk minority groups in the population, and people with diabetes living longer. Effective strategies will need to be undertaken to moderate the impact of these factors on national diabetes burden. Our analysis suggests that widespread implementation of reasonably effective preventive interventions focused on high-risk subgroups of the population can considerably reduce, but not eliminate, future increases in diabetes prevalence.
Subfields: Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism, Epidemiology
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/ae92cc5515051f7de3f5c2a9a325d459bb7abcb5
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Citations in the corpus
- Resistance Training is Medicine: Effects of Strength Training on Health (2012, background): “It is predicted that by the middle of this century, one of three adults will have diabetes (15).”
- Diabetes 2030: Insights from Yesterday, Today, and Future Trends (2017, methodology): “Estimates of diagnosed diabetes prevalence to 2030 are derived from Boyle et al’s sophisticated dynamic modeling paper, which projected the diabetes burden to 2050.(5) The present study utilized Boyle et al’s conservative 3-state dynamic model, middle-ground scenario of low, steady diabetes incidenc”
- The worldwide environment of cardiovascular disease: prevalence, diagnosis, therapy, and policy issues: a report from the American College of Cardiology. (2012, background): “By 2050, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention predict as many as 1 in 3 adults in the United States could have diabetes if current trends continue (175).”
- The pathogenesis of insulin resistance: integrating signaling pathways and substrate flux. (2016, background): “This knowledge and understanding gained over the past several decades into the pathogenesis of insulin resistance may avert the looming epidemics of diabetes and NAFLD/NASH and ensure a healthier future for subsequent generations (130).”
- Diabetes Self-management Education and Support in Type 2 Diabetes: A Joint Position Statement of the American Diabetes Association, the American Association of Diabetes Educators, and the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics (2015, background): “It has been projected that one in three individuals will develop type 2 diabetes by 2050.(15) The US health care system will be unable to afford the costs of care unless incidence rates and diabetes-related complications are reduced.”
- Economic Costs of Diabetes in the U.S. in 2012 (2013, background): “the prevalence of total diabetes (diagnosed and undiagnosed) may increase from the 2010 level of about one in nine adults to between one in five and one in three adults in 2050 (3,41).”
- Hepatic Acetyl CoA Links Adipose Tissue Inflammation to Hepatic Insulin Resistance and Type 2 Diabetes (2015, neutral): “While lipid-induced insulin resistance occurs early in the pathogenesis of T2D and can be dissociated from inflammation at this stage, a key question arises as to identification of the factor(s) that promotes the progression from ectopic lipid-induced insulin resistance to impaired glucose tolerance”
- Integrating Mechanisms for Insulin Resistance: Common Threads and Missing Links (2012, neutral): “By some estimates, within 40 years, one in every three Americans will have type 2 diabetes (Boyle et al., 2010).”
- Epidemiology of Obesity and Diabetes and Their Cardiovascular Complications (2016, neutral): “If present trends continue, it is estimated that 1 in 3 Americans will have diabetes mellitus by 2050.(34) Of particular concern is the high prevalence of diabetes mellitus among Asians who despite having a lower BMI are 30% to 50% more likely to develop diabetes mellitus than their white counterpar”