Predicting the Future: Have you considered using the Delphi Methodology?
By B. Ludwig. 1997
Frequently business, governmental agencies and organizations are faced with the problem of predicting or forecasting future events and relationships in order to make appropriate and reasonable plans or changes. Several methods exist for forecasting, one of which is called the Delphi technique. This approach has not been frequently used by Extension practitioners, but has potential as a tool for consensus building. The Tools for the Trade article provides an overview of the process and suggestions for implementation.
How researchers see this paper
The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.
- Albert P. C. Chan
- Yongjian Ke
- John F. Y. Yeung
- Yelin Xu
- Shouqing Wang
- D. Chan
- Octavio Loyola-González
- Sema A. Kalaian
Citations in the corpus
- Black-Box vs. White-Box: Understanding Their Advantages and Weaknesses From a Practical Point of View (2019, methodology): “The Delphi method, as a validation instrument for questionnaires, has been widely used in numerous applied areas, such as sports, economics, marketing, medical sciences, and curriculum planning [167]–[169].”
- Developing a risk assessment model for PPP projects in China — A fuzzy synthetic evaluation approach (2010, background): “Selection of expert panel It is important to identify and select potential members to constitute the panel of experts when carrying out a Delphi study [23,24].”
- Which Is the Best Parametric Statistical Method For Analyzing Delphi Data (2009, methodology): “In most instances it is found that three iterations are sufficient, and not enough new information is gained to warrant the cost of more iterations (Ludwig, 1997).”