Climate change and control of the southeastern Bering Sea pelagic ecosystem

By G. Hunt, P. Stabeno, G. Walters, E. Sinclair, R. Brodeur, Jeffery M. Napp, Nicholas A. Bond. 2002

621 citations recorded by the source corpus.

We propose a new hypothesis, the Oscillating Control Hypothesis (OCH), which predicts that pelagic ecosystem function in the southeastern Bering Sea will alternate between primarily bottom-up control in cold regimes and primarily top-down control in warm regimes. The timing of spring primary production is determined predominately by the timing of ice retreat. Late ice retreat (late March or later) leads to an early, ice-associated bloom in cold water (e.g., 1995, 1997, 1999), whereas no ice, or early ice retreat before mid-March, leads to an open-water bloom in May or June in warm water (e.g., 1996, 1998, 2000). Zooplankton populations are not closely coupled to the spring bloom, but are sensitive to water temperature. In years when the spring bloom occurs in cold water, low temperatures limit the production of zooplankton, the survival of larval/juvenile fish, and their recruitment into the populations of species of large piscivorous fish, such as walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma), Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) and arrowtooth flounder (Atheresthes stomias). When continued over decadal scales, this will lead to bottom-up limitation and a decreased biomass of piscivorous fish. Alternatively, in periods when the bloom occurs in warm water, zooplankton populations should grow rapidly, providing plentiful prey for larval and juvenile fish. Abundant zooplankton will support strong recruitment of fish and will lead to abundant predatory fish that control forage fish, including, in the case of pollock, their own juveniles. Piscivorous marine birds and pinnipeds may achieve higher production of young and survival in cold regimes, when there is less competition from large piscivorous fish for coldwater forage fish such as capelin (Mallotus villosus). Piscivorous seabirds and pinnipeds also may be expected to have high productivity in periods of transition from cold regimes to warm regimes, when young of large predatory species of fish are numerous enough to provide forage. The OCH predicts that the ability of large predatory fish populations to sustain fishing pressure will vary between warm and cold regimes. The OCH points to the importance of the timing of ice retreat and water temperatures during the spring bloom for the productivity of zooplankton, and the degree and direction of coupling between zooplankton and forage fish. Forage fish (e.g., juvenile pollock, capelin, Pacific herring [Clupea pallasii]) are key prey for adult pollock and other apex predators. In the southeastern Bering Sea, important changes in the biota since the mid-1970s include a marked increase

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, Oceanography

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/a8e3db48b0910068112fc99ac4a53fc2494ac211

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Citations in the corpus

Resolving the effect of climate change on fish populations (2009, background): “The strength of these processes also appears to depend on foodweb complexity and thermal conditions (Frank et al., 2007), and may oscillate between bottom-up and top-down controls (Hunt et al., 2002; Hunt and McKinnell, 2006).”
Linking predators to seasonality of upwelling: Using food web indicators and path analysis to infer trophic connections (2012, background): “Top-down and bottom-up processes may dominate in different ocean regions (Frank et al., 2006, 2007) or between years or decades within the same ecosystem (Hunt et al., 2002; Litzow and Ciannelli, 2007).”
Density-independent and density-dependent factors affecting temporal changes in spatial distributions of eastern Bering Sea flatfish (2008, background): “Under the Oscillating Control Hypothesis (OCH; Hunt et al., 2002) early ice retreats are associated with delayed blooms in warm water in late spring when stratification occurs, and the warm temperatures lead to rapid zooplankton population growth which provides prey for piscivorous fish.”
Observed and predicted effects of climate on Australian seabirds (2011, background): “However, this ‘bottom-up’ approach may be too simplistic when predicting flow-on effects to seabirds (Hunt et al. 2002; Ainley et al. 2007; Frank et al. 2007; Cury et al. 2008).”
Climate and the match or mismatch between predator requirements and resource availability (2007, background): “In an Arctic marine environment, the timing of the ice retreat affects the phytoplankton bloom both in time and space (Hunt et al. 2002).”
Climate effects on formation of jellyfish and ctenophore blooms: a review (2005, background): “…for example, in Chesapeake Bay, high precipitation and river flow lead to high nutrient loading, strong stratification, and increased production (Harding et al., 1999), while in the south-eastern Bering Sea, ice cover may increase water column stability and increase production (Hunt et al., 2002).”
Climate controls on marine ecosystems and fish populations (2010, methodology): “This shift was summarized as the “Oscillating Control Hypothesis” of Hunt et al. (2002).”
Food web structure in the high Arctic Canada Basin: evidence from δ13C and δ15N analysis (2005, positive): “In these high productivity systems, bottom-up processes are thought to drive the pelagic and benthic community and food-web structures (Dunton et al. 1989; Hunt et al. 2002).”
Projecting changes in the distribution and productivity of living marine resources: A critical review of the suite of modelling approaches used in the large European project VECTORS (2016, background): “…various trophodynamic processes can be influenced by changes in key abiotic factors on species such as changes in life history scheduling and match-mismatch dynamics between predators and their prey resources (Clark and Frid, 2001, Hunt et al., 2002, Beaugrand et al., 2003 and Kempf et al., 2013).”
The effects of changing climate on microzooplankton grazing and community structure: drivers, predictions and knowledge gaps (2013, background): “…where water temperature and the seasonal retreat of sea ice strongly affect the magnitude and timing of primary production and trophic coupling (Hunt et al., 2002; Jin et al., 2009), and where many global change impacts including warming (Sarmiento et al., 2004) and acidification (Orr et al.,…”
Major pathways by which climate may force marine fish populations (2010, background): “However, as these large year classes mature and become predators of small fish, control of recruitmentwill become top-down (Fig.11; Hunt et al., 2002).”
Bottom-up and top-down controls of walleye pollock ( Theragra chalcogramma) on the Eastern Bering Sea shelf (2006, neutral): “As a result, the bloom occurs in relatively warm water, zooplankton production is not limited by temperature, and abundant prey are available for larval and juvenile pollock on the shelf (Hunt et al., 2002).”
A conceptual model of the variation in parental attendance in response to environmental fluctuation : foraging energetics of lactating sea lions and fur seals (2007, background): “Changes in pollock availability between the two years of this study appear to be related to climate driven processes that alternate between warm and cold regimes in the Bering Sea (Hunt et al., 2002).”
The role of temperature on the growth and survival of early and late hatching Pacific cod larvae (Gadus macrocephalus) (2008, background): “Climate change in the Bering sea has resulted in increased spatial and temporal variance in the thermal environment and prey production in regions of the North Pacific where Pacific cod larvae are concentrated (Hunt et al., 2002; Matarese et al., 2003).”
From plankton to top predators: bottom-up control of a marine food web across four trophic levels. (2006, background): “Simultaneous or alternate operation of bottom-up and top-down mechanisms has been suggested in other marine ecosystems (Hunt et al. 2002), with profound implications for ecosystem regulation.”