On the Incidence of Civil War in Africa

By Paul Collier, Anke Hoeffler. 2002

854 citations recorded by the source corpus.

An econometric model of civil war is applied to the analysis of conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. Results show that Africa has had a similar incidence of civil conflict to other developing regions, and, with minor exceptions, its conflicts are consistent with the global pattern of behavior. However, the structure of risk differs considerably from other regions. Africa's economic characteristics have made it more vulnerable to conflict, but this has been offset by social characteristics that make its societies atypically safe. The contrasting trends of conflict are analyzed: rising in Africa and declining in other regions. Results show that these trends are predicted by the model. Africa's rising trend of conflict is due to its atypically poor economic performance.

Subfields: Demography, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Sociology and Political Science

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/612de74da35f0270f7c56267c7313483df78ac6a

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Citations in the corpus

Unintended Consequences: Does Aid Promote Arms Races? (2007, positive): “37 Data The model presented in Table 2 primarily uses data from Collier and Hoeffler (2002a) and the data can be obtained from Anke Hoeffler's website: http://users.”
Paradigm in Distress? (2005, background): “Basic arguments appear in Collier and Hoeffler (2002) and Collier et al. (2003).”
Natural Resources and Violent Conflict (2014, background): “Much of the recent interest in the relation between resources and conflict is the result of influential research by Collier (2000) and by Collier & Hoeffler (1998, 2002, 2004).”
Democratic Authoritarianism: Origins and Effects (2014, background): “…to launch a civil war, as Cox argues, because civil wars are often conducted by rebel groups whose existence is not based on societal grievances (Collier & Hoeffler 2002, Fearon & Laitin 2003) and whose capabilities are derived not from public support but from foreign patronage (Regan 2002,…”
AID, Policy and Peace: Reducing the risks of civil conflict (2002, background): “This result is superficially analogous to the theoretical and empirical association between natural resources and the risk of conflict (Collier and Hoeffler, 2002). However, there are reasons to be skeptical of aid as an incentive to rebellion. Unlike natural resources, aid is difficult for a rebel ”
Civil War and the Social Contract (2003, background): “In particular, the role of ethnic division, often presented as the main determinant of civil wars has been downplayed by many papers, and in particular empirically by Collier and Hoeffler (1998, 2002 and forthcoming) .”
Patronage and Political Stability in Africa (2009, background): “In other cases, no explicitly political or institutional variables are employed (Collier & Hoeffler, 2000, 2002).”
A Closer Look at Oil, Diamonds, and Civil War (2006, background): “…2005); a special concern for Africa, where a rising fraction of the world’s civil wars are found (Elbadawi & Sambanis 2000, Herbst 2000, Azam 2001, Collier & Hoeffler 2002, Leonard & Strauss 2003) the development of better civil war datasets (Gleditsch et al. 2002, Fearon & Laitin 2003, Sambanis…”