The Predictive Validity of Subjective Probabilities of Survival

By Michael D. Hurd, Kathleen McGarry. 2002

513 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Demography, General Health Professions

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/60697d753675577339b13049b479a27ca6c56402

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In General Health Professions

Citations in the corpus

Health Risk and Portfolio Choice (2008, background): “Although the data exhibit much pooling at focal responses like 0, 50, and 100, we know that the HRS expected-survivorship questions also exhibit pooling but still are good indicators of health and mortality (Hurd and McGarry 1995, 2002).”
How Deep is the Annuity Market Participation Puzzle (2007, background): “…population probabilities,27 while older survey participants tend to overestimate these probabilities.28 Speci cally, individuals 26Prior research by Hurd and McGarry (1995, 2002) shows that reported subjective probabilities in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) aggregate to population…”
Selection Effects in the United Kingdom Individual Annuities Market (2002, unknown): “Second, provided an annuitant mortality table is available, the money's worth ratio can be used to evaluate a given annuity both from the perspective of a typical buyer of that annuity, and from the perspective of a typical individual in the population at large.”
Why Parents Play Favorites: Explanations for Unequal Bequests (2004, background): “While these additional theoretical insights may prove useful, it is apparent that richer data are needed as well.”
Annuitization and asset allocation (2007, methodology): “We refer the interested reader to Hurd and McGarry (1995, 1997) for a discussion of experiments involving “subjective” versus “objective” assessments of survival probabilities.3 We will 3Also, more recently, Smith, Taylor, and Sloan (2001) claim that their “findings leave little doubt that…”
How Do College Students Form Expectations? (2011, unknown): “Hurd and McGarry (2002) find that individuals revise their survival probabilities downward in response to the onset of cancer or the death of one’s spouse.”
Life Expectancy and Human Capital Investments: Evidence from Maternal Mortality Declines. NBER Working Paper No. 13947. (2008, unknown): “Hurd and McGarry (2002) have shown evidence of such updating elsewhere.”
The Influence of Subjective Life Expectancy on Retirement Transition and Planning: A Longitudinal Study. (2012, background): “Indeed, actuarial life expectancy estimates and survival probabilities have become core tools for economists and financial planners who use them as a guide for determining how people should best allocate and invest their retirement savings (Hurd & McGarry, 2002).”