Grand minima and maxima of solar activity: new observational constraints

By I. Usoskin, S. Solanki, G. Kovaltsov. 2007

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Aims. Using a reconstruction of sunspot numbers stretching over multiple millennia, we analyze the statistics of the occurrence of grand minima and maxima and set new observational constraints on long-term solar and stellar dynamo models. Methods. We present an updated reconstruction of sunspot number over multiple millennia, from 14 C data by means of a physicsbased model, using an updated model of the evolution of the solar open magnetic flux. A list of grand minima and maxima of solar activity is presented for the Holocene (since 9500 BC) and the statistics of both the length of individual events as well as the waiting time between them are analyzed. Results. The occurrence of grand minima/maxima is driven not by long-term cyclic variability, but by a stochastic/chaotic process. The waiting time distribution of the occurrence of grand minima/maxima deviates from an exponential distribution, implying that these events tend to cluster together with long event-free periods between the clusters. Two different types of grand minima are observed: short (30–90 years) minima of Maunder type and long (>110 years) minima of Sporer type, implying that a deterministic behaviour of the dynamo during a grand minimum defines its length. The duration of grand maxima follows an exponential distribution, suggesting that the duration of a grand maximum is determined by a random process. Conclusions. These results set new observational constraints upon the long-term behaviour of the solar dynamo.

Subfields: Astronomy and Astrophysics, Molecular Biology, Oceanography

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/46f1c38c353e2de1fd3020adb2930d6099c4061e

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Citations in the corpus

A new model of cosmogenic production of radiocarbon 14C in the atmosphere (2012, background): “The modulation potentialφ varies between about 300 and 1500 MV within a modern high solar108 cycle (Usoskin et al., 2011), and can be as low as about 100 MV during the Maunder minimum (McCracken et al.,109 2004; Usoskin et al., 2007; Steinhilber et al., 2008).”
Evolution of the solar irradiance during the Holocene (2011, methodology): “The largest uncertainty is posed by the evolution of the geomagnetic field (Usoskin et al. 2006a, 2007; Snowball & Muscheler 2007).”
A History of Solar Activity over Millennia (2008, methodology): “A recent statistical result of grand minima occurrence (Usoskin et al., 2007) shows disagreement between observational data, depicting a degree of self-organization or “memory”, and the above dynamo model, which predicts a pure Poisson occurrence rate for grand minima (see Section 4.”
The Maunder minimum (1645–1715) was indeed a grand minimum: A reassessment of multiple datasets (2015, background): “Such grand minima are known from the indirect evidence provided by the cos-mogenic isotopes 14 C and 10 Be data for the Holocene to occur sporadically, with the Sun spending on average one-sixth of the time in such a state (Usoskin et al. 2007).”
Cosmic Ray Induced Ion Production in the Atmosphere (2008, background): “15 includes the whole range of solar activity variability, from the deep Maunder minimum to the modern Grand maximum of solar activity (Usoskin et al. 2007).”
A History of Solar Activity over Millennia (2008, positive): “A list of 27 grand minima, identified in the quantitative solar-activity reconstruction of the last 11,000 years, shown in Figure 17, is presented in Table 1 (after Usoskin et al., 2007).”
Estimating the frequency of extremely energetic solar events, based on solar, stellar, lunar, and terrestrial records (2012, background): “mo and the associated heliospheric magnetic ﬁeld on time scales ranging from decades to millennia, with grand minima and maxima throughout the long record [Solanki et al., 2004; Vonmoos et al., 2006; Usoskin et al., 2007; Steinhilber et al., 2008, 2010; McCracken et al., 2011]. Not only the long-ter”
Solar change and climate: an update in the light of the current exceptional solar minimum (2010, background): “(2009) argue that the current low solar cycle minimum is part of the fall from the grand solar maximum (Usoskin et al. 2007) that has persisted during the space age.”
Solar activity during the Holocene: the Hallstatt cycle and its consequence for grand minima and maxima (2016, background): “Recently, several longterm solar activity reconstructions have been published (e.g., Solanki et al. 2004; Vonmoos et al. 2006; Muscheler et al. 2007; Usoskin et al. 2007; Steinhilber et al. 2012).”
Scaling in situ cosmogenic nuclide production rates using analytical approximations to atmospheric cosmic-ray fluxes (2014, background): “While one cannot draw firm conclusions from this one comparison about any geographic variation in systematic uncertainties, this is promising in that estimates of the mean solar modulation value over the Holocene are comparable to current solar minimum values (Steinhilber et al., 2008; Usoskin et al”
A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene 14 C and CO 2 records: implications of data and model uncertainties (2013, result): “Our reconstruction of8 is compared with those of Usoskin et al.(2007) (US07, converted to GM75 LIS), of Muscheler et al.(2007) (MEA07) and with the reconstruction of Steinhilber et al.(2008) (SEA08), who used the ice core record of10Be instead of radiocarbon data (Fig.12).”
Climate and carbon-cycle variability over the last millennium (2010, methodology): “The TSI time series for the period 800 AD to the Maunder Minimum is reconstructed from estimates of the solar open magnetic flux based on cosmogenic isotope14C concentrations in tree rings (Solanki et al., 2004; Krivova and Solanki, 2008; Usoskin et al., 2007).”
Dynamics of the Earth’s Particle Radiation Environment (2009, methodology): “…a set of reconstructions of the modulation potential since 1700 AD, including a model computation (Usoskin et al. 2002b) from sunspot numbers and reconstructions from cosmogenic isotopes 14C (Usoskin et al. 2006, 2007) and 10Be in polar ice cores (McCracken et al. 2004; Vonmoos et al. 2006).”
Solar Dynamo Theory (2014, positive): “These data nonetheless show that episodes similar to the Maunder Minimum have occurred intermittently in the more distant past ( gray bands in Figure 1d; see also Usoskin et al. 2007, McCracken et al. 2013).”