A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene 14 C and CO 2 records: implications of data and model uncertainties
137 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Abstract. Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.
Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Molecular Biology, Paleontology
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/be6150fb3e02a2ba584f1e793a691f0b0b474429
How researchers see this paper
The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.
In Atmospheric Science
In Molecular Biology
In Paleontology
Citations in the corpus
- The Maunder minimum (1645–1715) was indeed a grand minimum: A reassessment of multiple datasets (2015, methodology): “In the same plot we show also the 14 C production rate obtained by Roth & Joos (2013) from the Intcal13 (Reimer et al. 2013) global radiocarbon data, using a new generation state-of-the-art carbon cycle model.”
- Solar activity during the Holocene: the Hallstatt cycle and its consequence for grand minima and maxima (2016, methodology): “…-BC/AD B) 10 Be extend the approach of Usoskin et al. (2014) to the last 9 millennia using the reconstruction of the14C global production rate (Roth & Joos 2013), the10Be GRIP dataset (Yiou et al. 1997), a new dipole moment reconstruction hereafter referred to as GMAG.9k (see Appendix A),…”