Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations as the optimal precursors for El Nino–Southern Oscillation events

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A Method for Identifying the Sensitive Areas in Targeted Observations for Tropical Cyclone Prediction: Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (2009, methodology): “The ability of MM5 to simulate this case accurately is checked based on a 36-h simulation initialized at 1200 UTC 4 August 2005.”
Does Model Parameter Error Cause a Significant “Spring Predictability Barrier” for El Niño Events in the Zebiak–Cane Model? (2012, methodology): “…to identify the optimal initial perturbation in a given constraint, has been used to study the predictability of ENSO events (Mu and Duan 2003; Duan et al. 2004, 2008; Duan and Mu 2006; Mu et al. 2007a,b), to assess the sensitivity of ocean circulation (Mu et al. 2004; Sun et al. 2005; Wu and…”
A kind of initial errors related to “spring predictability barrier” for El Niño events in Zebiak‐Cane model (2007, methodology): “CNOP approach has also been employed by Duan et al. [2004] to study the optimal precursors of ENSO, and by Mu et al.”
Is model parameter error related to a significant spring predictability barrier for El Niño events? Results from a theoretical model (2010, background): “These initial anomalies have robust patterns of negative (positive) SST and positive (negative) thermocline depth anomalies, which agree with the observations qualitatively (Duan et al., 2004) and act as the optimal precursors to El Niño events (see Duan et al., 2004).”