A kind of initial errors related to “spring predictability barrier” for El Niño events in Zebiak‐Cane model

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Does Model Parameter Error Cause a Significant “Spring Predictability Barrier” for El Niño Events in the Zebiak–Cane Model? (2012, methodology): “Furthermore, the mechanism by which the SPB develops remains debatable despite many hypotheses proposed to explain its occurrence (Webster and Yang 1992; Mu et al. 2007a).”
A Method for Identifying the Sensitive Areas in Targeted Observations for Tropical Cyclone Prediction: Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (2009, methodology): “A similar procedure was described in Oortwijn and Barkmeijer (1995) and Oortwijn (1998).”
An Approach to Generating Mutually Independent Initial Perturbations for Ensemble Forecasts: Orthogonal Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations (2016, background): “Extreme events are much more likely to induce fast growth of initial errors (Mu et al. 2007; Duan et al. 2009), which, combined with the FIG.”
Is model parameter error related to a significant spring predictability barrier for El Niño events? Results from a theoretical model (2010, background): “large prediction error; in particular, a prominent error growth occurs during the spring when the prediction is made before spring ( Mu et al., 2007a, 2007b; Duan et al., 2009; Yu et al., 2009).”