The Favourite-Longshot Bias and Market Efficiency in UK Football Betting
By M. Cain, David Law, David Peel. 2000
150 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Marketing
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/25ed3acdc1785a4b6b30efe379c8acd4590a281d
How researchers see this paper
The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.
In Economics and Econometrics
- Rob Simmons
- David Forrest
- John O. S. Wilson
- John Goddard
- Peter Dawson
- David Sendor
- Richard Verlander
- Martin Spann
In Marketing
- Martin Spann
- Rob Simmons
- David Sendor
- Richard Verlander
- John Goddard
- Peter Dawson
- David Forrest
- Stephen Dobson
Citations in the corpus
- How Efficient is the European Football Betting Market? Evidence from Arbitrage and Trading Strategies (2009, background): “This phenomenon has been identifi ed in a variety of sports betting markets, including the European football betting market (see, for example, Cain et al., 2000, 2003).”
- Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed‐odds betting (2004, background): “Recently Cain et al. (2000) report evidence of longshot bias in the fixed-odds betting market for match results and scores in English football. In comparisons of the estimated fair odds with the bookmaker’s actual odds for specific scores, there is some evidence of longshot bias. Direct calculations”
- Sentiment in the betting market on Spanish football (2008, background): “For these markets, published work has concentrated on bias in the short-odds/long-odds dimension (see, for example, Cain et al., 2000, on soccer and Woodland and Woodland, 2001 and 2003, on ice hockey and *Corresponding author.”
- Sports forecasting: a comparison of the forecast accuracy of prediction markets, betting odds and tipsters (2009, result): “…of observations is smaller than those of studies that analyze the forecast accuracy of betting markets (e.g., Pope and Peel, 1989: 1291 matches; Cain et al., 2000: 2855 matches; Dixon and Pope, 2004: 6629 matches; Vlastakis et al., 2007: 12,841 matches; Graham and Stott, 2008: 11,000 matches),…”
- Issues in Sports Forecasting (2010, methodology): “The model of Cain et al. (2000) differed from that of DixonColes for two reasons: it used the negative binomial distribution to model the number of goals scored, and the independent variables were the win-lose odds prices quoted by the bookmakers rather than proxy attack-defense variables.37 Since…”
- Are football referees really biased and inconsistent?: evidence on the incidence of disciplinary sanction in the English Premier League (2007, methodology): “Maher (1982), Dixon and Coles (1997), Dixon and Pope (2004) and Goddard (2005) used the bivariate Poisson distribution to model English football goal scoring data, whereas Cain et al. (2000) used the univariate negative binomial distribution.”