Disagreement about Inflation Expectations
By N. Mankiw, Ricardo Reis, Justin Wolfers. NBER macroeconomics annual, 2003
1,130 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Finance
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/0f5d7c630607265bcc5bba10614ca95b33f5bdb0
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Citations in the corpus
- Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents'forecasts (2010, methodology): “model: Mankiw and Reis (2002), Mankiw, Reis and Wolfers (2003) and Carroll (2003).”
- Socioeconomic Status and Macroeconomic Expectations (2017, neutral): “An interesting avenue for future work is to quantify the importance of divergence in expectations across SES strata for the dynamics of the wealth distribution in the population, possibly by incorporating the SES-related belief heterogeneity in models like those of Piketty (1995), Favilukis (2013), ”
- Endogenous Information, Menu Costs and Inflation Persistence (2008, neutral): “Thus, inflation 23 The model also generates forecast disagreement across firms because firms receive idiosyncratic signals thus qualitatively matching evidence presented in Mankiw et al. (2004).”
- Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations (2006, positive): “Using this model, Mankiw et al (2003) are able to account for a number of features of inflation, including the extent of the observed disagreement and a 3 variety of properties of the median forecast error.”
- The Role of Media for Inflation Forecast Disagreement of Households and Professionals (2012, neutral): “Regarding the empirical side, however, the literature on determinants of disagreement 1In the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers, disagreement in terms of the interquartile range of one year ahead expected inflation averages at about 4% after 1990.”
- Dynamic predictor selection in a new Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations (2010, methodology): “Using survey data, Branch (2004, 2005), Carroll (2003), and Mankiw, Reis, and Wolfers (2003) provide evidence that economic forecasters (both consumers and professional economists) have heterogeneous expectations and, importantly, the distribution of heterogeneity evolves over time in response to…”
- Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise (2017, neutral): “(See, e.g., Diether, Malloy, and Scherbina 2002; Mankiw, Reis, and Wolfers 2004; Patton and Timmermann 2010; Coibion and Gorodnichenko 2012.)”
- A New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations (2009, methodology): “From an empirical viewpoint, our theoretical analysis is important as recent studies have documented heterogeneous expectations and ‘‘disagreement’’ of beliefs in survey data (e.g. Carroll, 2003; Mankiw et al., 2003; Branch, 2004).”
- Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious? (2005, neutral): “yt+1|zt ∼ N ( μy −Bμz + Bzt, σ(2) y −B(2)σ(2) z ) , (37)”
- Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries (2012, methodology): “We do so to be consistent with the previous work (Mankiw et al., 2003) and because the IQR is also likely to be more robust to outliers than the standard deviation.8”