Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise
By Charles F. Manski. NBER macroeconomics annual, 2017
198 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, General Decision Sciences, Management Science and Operations Research
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/f8a4c5ebde990ef2854cf4c831d35603e94711ee
Citations in the corpus
- IQ, Expectations, and Choice (2019, unknown): “Most existing data sources that include proxies for cognitive abilities, such as the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) that produced important microeconomic research on the beliefs and decision-making of the elderly (e.g., see Manski (2018)), are not viable in this case.”
- Five Facts about Beliefs and Portfolios (2019, unknown): “…between 30% and 40%, and more than 40%.7 This set-up allows us to elicit investors’ beliefs about 1-year expected stock returns through both point predictions, the direct question, and probabilistic assessments, the implied expectation from the elicited distribution of returns (see Manski, 2018).”
- Designing Information Provision Experiments (2020, unknown): “Such probabilistic elicitations have the advantage that there is a well-defined absolute numerical scale that is interpersonally and intrapersonally comparable (Manski, 2018).”
- Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases (2018, unknown): “Partition dependence is problematic for the growing literatures in many areas of economics that rely on survey elicitations of people’s beliefs (for a review, see Manski, 2018).”
- Economic Forecasting with an Agent-Based Model (2020, unknown): “…entire literature here, but select articles that survey this large literature include vans and Honkapohja (2001a), Evans and Honkapohja (2009), Milani (2012), Woodford (2013), Eusepi and Preston 018), Berardi and Galimberti (2017), Coibion et al. (2018), Manski (2018), and Evans and McGough (2005).”
- How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior? (2020, unknown): “…expectations are formed (Das, Kuhnen, & Nagel, 2020; Goldfayn-Frank & Wohlfart, 2018; Kuchler & Zafar, 2019; Malmendier & Nagel, 2011, 2016; Manski, 2017; Mian, Sufi, & Khoshkhou, 2018; Tortorice, 2012) and how these expectations shape household behavior, such as the effect of home price…”