Disagreement Among Forecasters in G7 Countries
By Jonas Dovern, U. Fritsche, Jiří Slačálek. Review of Economics and Statistics, 2012
396 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Abstract We investigate determinants of disagreement—cross-sectional dispersion of individual forecasts—about key economic indicators. Disagreement about economic activity, in particular about GDP growth, has a distinct dynamic from disagreement about prices: inflation and interest rates. Disagreement about GDP growth intensifies strongly during recessions. Disagreement about prices rises with their level, declines under independent central banks, and both its level and its sensitivity to macroeconomic variables are larger in countries where central banks became independent only around the mid-1990s. Our findings suggest that credible monetary policy contributes to anchoring of expectations about inflation and interest rates. Disagreement for both groups of indicators increases with uncertainty about the actual series.
Subfields: Economics and Econometrics
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/b8579837b0bb2db437374aa350cb855ee62e3804
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In Economics and Econometrics
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Citations in the corpus
- The Role of Central Bank Transparency for Guiding Private Sector Forecasts (2012, neutral): “They have also been used in the related studies by Crowe (2006) and Dovern et al. (2009).”
- Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts (2012, positive): “Nonetheless, our results are consistent with Dovern et al. (2010), who rely on dispersion of forecasts and find, that central bank independence plays a more important role in anchoring expectations than inflation targeting among a similar set of countries. choice of frequency of updates or…”
- Identifying Uncertainty Shocks Using the Price of Gold (2018, neutral): “2For example Dovern et al. (2012); Mankiw et al. (2003); Baker et al. (2013); Scotti (2013); Jurado et al. (2015); Rossi and Sekhposyan (2015); Bachmann et al. (2013).”