Making Low Probabilities Useful

By Howard Kunreuther, Nathan Novemsky, Daniel Kahneman. 2001

296 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: General Decision Sciences, Management Science and Operations Research, Sociology and Political Science

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/0f1fbabbb6e195ffecd16e40f7a366615c9607e2

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In General Decision Sciences

1. W. Botzen
2. Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts
3. Mark Pauly
4. Peter P. Wakker
5. Aurélien Baillon
6. E. Michel-Kerjan
7. Nathalie Etchart-Vincent
8. Laure Cabantous

In Management Science and Operations Research

1. Aurélien Baillon
2. Laure Cabantous
3. W. Botzen
4. E. Michel-Kerjan
5. Nathalie Etchart-Vincent
6. Peter P. Wakker
7. J. van den Bergh
8. Howard Kunreuther

In Sociology and Political Science

1. W. Botzen
2. E. Michel-Kerjan
3. Nathalie Etchart-Vincent
4. J. van den Bergh
5. Howard Kunreuther
6. Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts

Citations in the corpus

• Aggregating imprecise or conflicting beliefs: An experimental investigation using modern ambiguity theories (2012, background): “Insensitivity (in our case ambiguity-generated, 4 referred to as a-insensitivity) is another, cognitive, component (Kunreuther, Novemsky, and Kahneman 2001) prior to any preference and orthogonal to the aversion/seeking component.”
• Dependence of flood risk perceptions on socioeconomic and objective risk factors (2009, background): “Kunreuther et al. [2001] find that providing an anchor helps respondents to assess low probabilities.”
• Divergence between individual perceptions and objective indicators of tail risks: Evidence from floodplain residents in New York City (2015, background): “In general, individuals have difficulties with assessing low-probability/high-impact risks (Barberis 2013a; Carman and Kooreman 2014) and several studies show that this also applies to natural disasters (e.g., Kunreuther, Novemsky, and Kahneman 2001).”
• Probability weighting and the ‘level’ and ‘spacing’ of outcomes: An experimental study over losses (2009, background): “For instance, Kunreuther et al. (2001) and Sunstein (2003) show that discriminability tends to decrease as the emotional content of consequences grows.”
• Strategic risk analysis – a field version (2002, background): “…foundation (based on relative ordering as opposed to the absolute counting in classic probability theory) provides added decision supportbecausèòne needs to present comparison scenarios that are located on the probability scale to evoke people's own feeling of risk'' (Kunreuther et al., 2001).”
• Neglecting Disaster: Why Don't People Insure Against Large Losses? (2004, background): “A recent study by Kunreuther, Novemsky, and Kahneman (2001) demonstrated that individuals do not appear to be able to distinguish among different values of probability when all values are “low.””