The biogeography of prediction error: why does the introduced range of the fire ant over-predict its native range?

By M. Fitzpatrick, Jake F. Weltzin, N. Sanders, R. Dunn. 2006

388 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Ecological Modeling, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Genetics

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/0c675d47dbb8186b70a0792d098fa11f18d0308e

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Citations in the corpus

Climate change, plant migration, and range collapse in a global biodiversity hotspot: the Banksia (Proteaceae) of Western Australia (2008, background): “relationships and model error when such relationships are extrapolated to new biogeographical settings (Fitzpatrick et al., 2007).”
Combined modelling of distribution and niche in invasion biology: a case study of two invasive Tetramorium ant species (2008, background): “Recent work (Mau-Crimmins et al., 2006; Broennimann et al., 2007; Fitzpatrick et al., 2007) indicates that modelling may be useful as a rapid means to disclose niche changes, but additional testing is needed.”
Defying the curse of ignorance: perspectives in insect macroecology and conservation biogeography (2010, background): “Fitzpatrick et al. (2007) reported that fire ants shifted their range after invading North America, although Peterson and Nakazawa (2008) attributed this to a methodological artefact (but see Fitzpatrick et al. (2008) for a reply, and Roura-Pascal et al. (2009) for an independent analysis).”
Equilibrium or not? Modelling potential distribution of invasive species in different stages of invasion (2012, background): “…and projecting them to potential introduction sites (e.g. Peterson, 2003; 78 Diversity and Distributions, 18, 73–83, ª 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd Fitzpatrick et al., 2007) or (2) mechanistic models based on physiological responses of organisms to their environment (e.g. Meentemeyer et al.,…”
Environmental data sets matter in ecological niche modelling: an example with Solenopsis invicta and Solenopsis richteri. (2007, methodology): “In any case, the biological explanations for the non-predictivity between distributional areas suggested previously ( Fitzpatrick et al. , 2007 ) (and, in fact, in other recent contributions of the same nature; Broennimann et al. , 2007) do not appear necessary ‐ rather, methodological consideration”
Invasive species distribution models – how violating the equilibrium assumption can create new insights (2012, background): “the native range) may misrepresent the species’ environmental preferences and result in incomplete predictions (Broennimann et al., 2007; Fitzpatrick et al., 2007).”
Thermogeography predicts the potential global range of the invasive European green crab (Carcinus maenas) (2010, background): “This has been interpreted as apparent niche shift in the invasive range, which could reflect ecological release and/or physiological adaptation (Broennimann et al., 2007; Fitzpatrick et al., 2007, 2008).”
Characterizing and predicting species distributions across environments and scales: Argentine ant occurrences in the eye of the beholder (2009, background): “Recent modelling efforts have begun to use occurrence data from widely disparate regions (often different continents) to study model transferability (Roura-Pascual et al., 2006; Fitzpatrick et al., 2007; Peterson et al., 2007).”
Uses and misuses of bioclimatic envelope modeling. (2012, background): “…of the species in question (e.g., Ashcroft et al. 2011, Austin and Van Niel 2011), as will frequently be the case with species having distributions that are structured by barriers to dispersal or by factors operating at different spatial extents or resolutions from those used in modeling.”
Risks of biological control for conservation purposes (2012, background): “…spread of previously established introduced species is a major growth area of invasion biology, with climatic envelope and various other sorts of models being combined with general circulation models of global climate change (Guisan and Thuiller 2005; Fitzpatrick et al. 2007; Bradley et al. 2010).”
Ecological niche conservatism: a time‐structured review of evidence (2011, background): “…predicted the North American introduced range quite accurately when simpler and less highly dimensional environmental data sets were used (contra Fitzpatrick et al., 2007): in sum, the ant example of niche shifts appears to be a consequence of methodological artefact, rather than a…”