Global hotspots and correlates of emerging zoonotic diseases
By Toph Allen, K. Murray, C. Zambrana‐Torrelio, S. Morse, C. Rondinini, Moreno Di Marco, Nathan Breit, K. Olival, P. Daszak. Nature Communications, 2017
910 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Zoonoses originating from wildlife represent a significant threat to global health, security and economic growth, and combatting their emergence is a public health priority. However, our understanding of the mechanisms underlying their emergence remains rudimentary. Here we update a global database of emerging infectious disease (EID) events, create a novel measure of reporting effort, and fit boosted regression tree models to analyze the demographic, environmental and biological correlates of their occurrence. After accounting for reporting effort, we show that zoonotic EID risk is elevated in forested tropical regions experiencing land-use changes and where wildlife biodiversity (mammal species richness) is high. We present a new global hotspot map of spatial variation in our zoonotic EID risk index, and partial dependence plots illustrating relationships between events and predictors. Our results may help to improve surveillance and long-term EID monitoring programs, and design field experiments to test underlying mechanisms of zoonotic disease emergence. The risk of epidemics originating from wild animals demands close monitoring of emerging infectious disease (EID) events and their predictors. Here, the authors update a global database of EID events, analyze their environmental and biological correlates, and present a new global hotspot map of zoonotic EID risk.
Subfields: Agronomy and Crop Science, Modeling and Simulation, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/ffba0e28de0ad62150f452c30641548e56503bb1
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Citations in the corpus
- Global rangeland production systems and livelihoods at threat under climate change and variability (2020, background): “…here at the grid-cell or country level, alsomerit attention and include, but are not limited to, considerations of risks of disease outbreak (Allen et al 2017, FAO 2018), access to veterinary and extension services and enrolment in livestock insurance schemes (Skees and Enkh-Amgalan 2002),…”
- Tourism and COVID-19: Impacts and implications for advancing and resetting industry and research (2020, neutral): “COVID-19 is also a result of the intersection of broader processes of urbanisation, globalisation, environmental change, agribusiness and contemporary capitalism (Allen et al., 2017).”
- Improved inference of time-varying reproduction numbers during infectious disease outbreaks (2019, background): “Infectious disease epidemics are a recurring threat worldwide (Daszak et al., 2000; Taylor et al., 2001; Morens et al., 2004; Jones et al., 2008; Fisher et al., 2012; Allen et al., 2017; Thompson and Brooks-Pollock, 2019).”