Is a 100% renewable European power system feasible by 2050?
By W. Zappa, M. Junginger, M. van den Broek. Applied Energy, 2019
507 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Abstract In this study, we model seven scenarios for the European power system in 2050 based on 100% renewable energy sources, assuming different levels of future demand and technology availability, and compare them with a scenario which includes low-carbon non-renewable technologies. We find that a 100% renewable European power system could operate with the same level of system adequacy as today when relying on European resources alone, even in the most challenging weather year observed in the period from 1979 to 2015. However, based on our scenario results, realising such a system by 2050 would require: (i) a 90% increase in generation capacity to at least 1.9 TW (compared with 1 TW installed today), (ii) reliable cross-border transmission capacity at least 140 GW higher than current levels (60 GW), (iii) the well-managed integration of heat pumps and electric vehicles into the power system to reduce demand peaks and biogas requirements, (iv) the implementation of energy efficiency measures to avoid even larger increases in required biomass demand, generation and transmission capacity, (v) wind deployment levels of 7.5 GW y−1 (currently 10.6 GW y−1) to be maintained, while solar photovoltaic deployment to increase to at least 15 GW y−1 (currently 10.5 GW y−1), (vi) large-scale mobilisation of Europe’s biomass resources, with power sector biomass consumption reaching at least 8.5 EJ in the most challenging year (compared with 1.9 EJ today), and (vii) increasing solid biomass and biogas capacity deployment to at least 4 GW y−1 and 6 GW y−1 respectively. We find that even when wind and solar photovoltaic capacity is installed in optimum locations, the total cost of a 100% renewable power system (∼530 €bn y−1) would be approximately 30% higher than a power system which includes other low-carbon technologies such as nuclear, or carbon capture and storage (∼410 €bn y−1). Furthermore, a 100% renewable system may not deliver the level of emission reductions necessary to achieve Europe’s climate goals by 2050, as negative emissions from biomass with carbon capture and storage may still be required to offset an increase in indirect emissions, or to realise more ambitious decarbonisation pathways.
Subfields: Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Energy Engineering and Power Technology, Pollution
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/f2377456acae31d34a5b4d5507a8ae32b08ef645
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Citations in the corpus
- Speed of technological transformations required in Europe to achieve different climate goals (2021, methodology): “0 [35, 38] 0 a Raw biomass fuel cost is assumed as the middle value of the range provided in the references for different European countries and types of sustainable biomass.”
- Tightening EU ETS targets in line with the European Green Deal: Impacts on the decarbonization of the EU power sector (2021, background): “[6], who analyse the system adequacy of various 100% renewable power system setups for Europe in 2050; [7], who focus on a greenfield analysis of combinations of variable renewable energy shares and CO2 prices to achieve a given level of CO2 emission reductions for a single year; [8], who analyse tw”