Speed of technological transformations required in Europe to achieve different climate goals

By Marta Victoria, E. Zeyen, Tom Brown. Joule, 2021

146 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Europe’s contribution to global warming will be determined by the cumulative emissions until climate neutrality is achieved. In this paper, we investigate alternative transition paths under carbon budgets corresponding to temperature increases between 1.5 and 2◦C. We use PyPSA-Eur-Sec, an open model of the sector-coupled European energy system with high spatial and temporal resolution. All the paths entail similar technological transformations, but the timing of the scale-up of important technologies like water electrolysis, carbon capture and hydrogen networks differs in the model. In our results, solar PV, onshore and offshore wind become the cornerstone of a net-zero energy system enabling the decarbonisation of other sectors via direct electrification (e.g. heat pumps and electric vehicles) or indirect electrification (e.g. using synthetic fuels). Under the cost and performance assumptions applied, for a social cost of carbon (SCC) of 120e /tCO2, transition paths under 1.5 and 1.6 ◦C budgets are, respectively, 8%, and 1% more expensive than the 2◦Cbudget because building assets earlier costs more. These pathways also see a faster ramp-up of new technologies before 2035. Under these assumptions, the 1.5◦C-budget is cost-optimal in our model, if SCC of at least 300 Euros are considered. Moreover, we discuss the strong implications of the SCC and discount rate assumed when comparing alternative paths. We also analyse the consequences of different assumptions on the cost and potential of CO2 sequestration.

Subfields: Aerospace Engineering, Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/3d6bb3fc049eeba5e79c91a3f48c44d3c54082a3

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Aerospace Engineering

In Electrical and Electronic Engineering

In Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment

Citations in the corpus

On the History and Future of 100% Renewable Energy Systems Research (2022, background): “modeling of the transformation in the industry and feedstock supply [134] and can be used for 100% renewable energyindustry systems if fossil inputs are not allowed.”