Statistical Testing in Forecasting Model Selection

By Stephen F. Witt, Haiyan Song, Panos Louvieris. 2003

106 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Finance, Management Science and Operations Research

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Citations in the corpus

Tourism demand for Italy and the business cycle (2010, methodology): “Table 6 reports the synthetic forecasting performance indicators, that is, bias as measured by the mean forecasting error (MFE) and accuracy as quantified by the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) index (Li et al., 2005; Witt et al., 2003).”
Forecasting international tourist flows to Macau (2006, background): “Exceptions are Song et al (2003b), Witt et al (2003), Witt et al (2004) and Wong et al (2003).”
Tourism demand modelling and forecasting—A review of recent research (2008, methodology): “Statistical tests for forecast differences are rarely used except De Mello and Nell (2005), Kon and Turner (2005) and Witt et al (2003).”
Tourism Demand Forecasting: A Time Varying Parameter Error Correction Model (2006, methodology): “Applications of the TVP model to tourism demand forecasting have shown its superiority over fixed-parameter econometric models in terms of short-run forecasting accuracy (see, for instance, Song, Witt, and Jensen 2003; Witt, Song, and Louvieris 2003).”
Impacts of the Financial and Economic Crisis on Tourism in Asia (2010, background): “Witt and Witt (1991) and Witt, Song, and Louvieris (2003) indicated that forecasting accuracy (in terms of magnitude of error) and directional changes are equally important forecasting error measures, as different stakeholders tend to be interested in different error measures.”
A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice (2014, background): “In their study of the demand for Danish tourism, Witt, Song, and Louvieris (2003) state that the TVP model performs consistently well for one-year-ahead forecasting.”
Forecasting tourist arrivals using time-varying parameter structural time series models (2011, methodology): “Witt et al. (2003) investigate the forecasting performance of the TVP model in terms of both error magnitude and directional change.”
Recent Developments in Econometric Modeling and Forecasting (2005, methodology): “The LAIDS model can be estimated by three methods: ordinary least squares (OLS), maximum likelihood (ML) and Zellner’s (1962) iterative approach for seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) estimation.”
Tourism forecasting: To combine or not to combine? (2007, methodology): “Witt et al. (2003) and Song and Witt (2006) have successfully applied this technique to tourism demand forecasting.”