Tourism Demand Forecasting: A Time Varying Parameter Error Correction Model

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The Tourism Forecasting Competition (2011, methodology): “It is only the Theta method that is competitive to Naïve, a method which also performed extremely well for annual data in the Makridakis and Hibon (2000) M3 forecasting competition where it was first introduced.”
A review of micro-analyses of tourist expenditure (2010, background): “Despite being closer to consumer behaviour theories, the latter is less common in a tourism context (Li, Wong, Song, & Witt, 2006b ).”
A Meta-Analysis of International Tourism Demand Elasticities (2013, methodology): “The only studies are those by Crouch (1992, 1995, 1996), Lim (1997, 1999), and Brons et al. (2002). However, in many other fields, meta-analysis is a widely used technique for synthesizing results across a large number of empirical studies in order to identify the degree of consensus and disagreemen”
Tourism demand modelling and forecasting—A review of recent research (2008, methodology): “Li et al (2006a) demonstrated that TVP-LR-AIDS and TVP-EC-LAIDS outperformed their fixed-parameter counterparts in the overall evaluation of demand level forecasts.”