Predicting uncertainty in forecasts of weather and climate

By Tim N. Palmer. 2000

504 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/ef1f47702b4f7e423a4026c70bc2a7682e361d85

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Citations in the corpus

The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Looking back (more than) 25 years and projecting forward 25 years (2018, methodology): “Reviews of the use of ensemble methods across the timescales have been given elsewhere (Palmer, 2000; Palmer et al., 2005).”
A Probability and Decision-Model Analysis of a Multimodel Ensemble of Climate Change Simulations (2001, unknown): “discussed recently in Palmer (2001), the parameteriza-”
Measuring Dynamical Prediction Utility Using Relative Entropy (2002, methodology): “Some progress (Palmer et al. 1993; Toth and Kalnay 1993; Moore and Kleeman 1998; Palmer 2000) has occurred in utilizing this measure as an indicator of forecast skill.”
Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions (2007, methodology): “2 Its evolution is traced in weather forecasting where IC ensembles are used to produce probabilistic forecasts (Palmer 2000).”
Evaluating Probabilistic Forecasts Using Information Theory (2002, methodology): “The best method to construct these ensembles is the subject of current research (for a review, see Palmer 2000).”
Evaluating Parameterizations in General Circulation Models: Climate Simulation Meets Weather Prediction (2004, background): “As the length of the forecast increases, the systematic forecast error approaches the systematic climate error (Palmer 1999).”
Physical Climate Processes and Feedbacks (2001, background): “This sensitivity limits our ability to predict the detailed evolution of weather; inevitable errors and uncertainties in the starting conditions of a weather forecast amplify through the forecast (Palmer, 2000).”
Generalization of the Ignorance Score: Continuous Ranked Version and Its Decomposition (2012, background): “Ensemble members differ from each other by slightly varied initial conditions or different integration models and therefore account for some of the uncertainty mentioned above (Ehrendorfer 1997; Palmer 2000).”
Verification and Validation in Computational Fluid Dynamics (2002, background): “The only fields we are aware of within CFD that pursue this methodology are the fields of underground transport of toxic waste materials or pollutants [35, 153, 156, 196, 322] and climatology [15, 67, 104, 145, 255, 291].”
Development of a four‐dimensional variational coupled data assimilation system for enhanced analysis and prediction of seasonal to interannual climate variations (2008, unknown): “of synoptic atmospheric variability [e.g., Palmer, 1993; Moore and Kleeman, 1996; Shukla, 1998; Palmer, 2000; Vialard et al., 2005].”
The economic value of ensemble forecasts as a tool for risk assessment: From days to decades (2002, methodology): “12 (based on a methodology described by Räisänen and Palmer (2001)).”