Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions

By D. Stainforth, Myles Allen, E. Tredger, Leonard A. Smith. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 2007

483 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/086fc65816506730658e217bd1e44917cfe7c46b

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Atmospheric Science

In Global and Planetary Change

Citations in the corpus

Adaptation in the UK: a decision-making process (2010, background): “Arguably, estimates of the likelihood of projections could be classed as ambiguous given the considerable secondary uncertainty not captured bymodelling studies (Dessai et al. 2009, Stainforth et al. 2007a & b, Hallegatte 2008).”
Scientific Ambiguity and Climate Policy (2013, background): “…complexity of their task, and the intrinsic difficulties of prediction in highly nonlinear multi-dimensional physical systems (see Smith 2002, 2007; Stainforth et al. 2007; Frame et al. 2007 for illuminating discussions of the scientific and philosophical challenges of climate prediction), these…”
Is Bayes Posterior just Quick and Dirty Confidence (2011, background): “The failure to make true assertions with a promised reliability can be extreme with the Bayes use of mathematical priors (Stainforth et al., 2007; Hein-rich, 2006).”
Challenges in Combining Projections from Multiple Climate Models (2010, background): “…model inadequacy) means that no set of parameters will make the model agree perfectly with observations (e.g., Sanderson et al. 2008), because certain processes are missing or are only approximated in the model [see, e.g., Stainforth et al. (2007) and Knutti (2008a) for a more detailed discussion].”
Drought and the future of rural communities: Opportunities and challenges for climate change adaptation in regional Victoria, Australia (2013, background): “…change forecasts and projections, especially for rainfall at the farm-scale, and this uncertainty will remain for the foreseeable future (e.g. Stainforth et al., 2007; Koutsoyiannis et al., 2008, 2009; Koutsoyiannis et al., 2008; Blöschl and Montanari, 2010; Montanari et al., 2010; Kiem and…”
The end of model democracy? (2010, background): “Some argue that structural problems are too big compared to the observational uncertainty, implying that all models are so wrong that we cannot even attach likelihoods to models ( Stainforth et al. 2007 ).”
Error Reduction and Convergence in Climate Prediction (2008, unknown): “(1)] (Frame et al. 2007; Stainforth et al. 2007).”
Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation (2017, unknown): “These highly aggregated models are used in a cost-benefit framework to analyse economically optimal levels of abatement taking into account future impacts of climate change (Moore and Diaz 2015; Stern 2006).”
Learning about physical parameters: the importance of model discrepancy (2014, background): “…engineering (Apley et al 2006, Bayarri 2009), health sciences (Strongk et al 2012), nuclear reactors (Unal et al 2011), experimental physics (Lee et al 2008), astrophysics (Habib et al 2007), and climate modeling (Murphy et al 2007, Stainforth et al 2007, Rougier 2007, Sansó and Forest 2009).”
Adapting to Climate Change: Climate prediction: a limit to adaptation? (2009, unknown): “In the context of complex climate models, Stainforth et al. ( 2007 ) have reiterated this point: ‘statements about future climate relate to a never before experienced state of the system; thus it is impossible to either calibrate the model for the forecast regime of interest or confi rm the…”