Quantifying the risk of extreme seasonal precipitation events in a changing climate

By Tim N. Palmer, Jouni Räisänen. Nature, 2002

634 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/ed6c6af0d32d95d0c7fcbebef1cefa7a8e978da0

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Citations in the corpus

Climate-change effects on extreme precipitation in central Europe: uncertainties of scenarios based on regional climate models (2009, background): “This is true for both GCMs (Kharin and Zwiers 2000, 2005; Palmer and Räisänen 2002; Voss et al. 2002; Kiktev et al. 2003; Groisman et al. 2005; Barnett et al. 2006; Tebaldi et al. 2006) and RCMs over Europe (Frei et al.”
Description and evaluation of the bergen climate model: ARPEGE coupled with MICOM (2003, background): “It is difficult to assess whether this also holds for the climate predictions for the next century, but it indicates that the uncertainties in the climate scenarios may be improved by using ensemble means over a large range of different AOGCMs (Palmer 2001; Palmer and Räisänen 2002).”
The economic value of ensemble forecasts as a tool for risk assessment: From days to decades (2002, methodology): “(Similar results for two standard deviations above normal are described by Palmer and Räisänen (2002).)”
Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling (2007, methodology): “A study by Palmer and Räisänen (2002) used 19 climate models in a probabilistic analysis to quantify the increases in probability of extreme precipitation for different regions of the world under global warming, and a study by Tebaldi et al. (2004b) focused on the production of pdfs for change in…”
An improvement of analog model strategy for more reliable local climate change scenarios (2005, background): “It is likely that extreme events may become more frequent in the future (Huntingford et al., 2003; Horton et al., 2001; Palmer and R€ais€anen, 2002; Frich et al., 2002; IPCC, 2002; Skaugen et al., 2002a; DeGaetano and Allen, 2002; Prudhomme and Reed, 1999) and there is a non-zero probability of…”
Empirical downscaling of wind speed probability distributions (2005, methodology): “[7] A probabilistic approach to climate projections has also been advocated in the RCM community where probability estimates from model ensembles have been derived [Palmer and Räisänen, 2002; Stainforth et al., 2005; Giorgi and Mearns, 2002].”
Effects of global climate change on marine and estuarine fishes and fisheries (2004, background): “It is widely accepted that due to greenhouse gases a profound change in climate will occur (Palmer and Räisänen, 2002; Schnur, 2002).”
The End-to-End Attribution Problem: From Emissions to Impacts (2005, background): “A solution to this problem is to look at the risk of the event occurring, rather than the occurrence of the event itself (Barsugli et al., 1999; Palmer and Räisänen, 2002).”
Seasonal and Inter-Annual Climate Forecasting: The New Tool for Increasing Preparedness to Climate Variability and Change In Agricultural Planning And Operations (2005, methodology): “For the seasonal to inter-seasonal time scale, Keating andMeinke (1998), Stephens (1998), and Hammer et al.”
How reliable are climate models? (2007, methodology): “By applying a simple decision-making model, Räisänen and Palmer (2001) and Palmer and Räisänen (2002) showed that probabilistic climate change projections may have considerable value even for variables such as precipitation for which the agreement between different models is relatively low.”
Potential impacts of global climate change on freshwater fisheries (2007, background): “, southern Europe and northern Africa) could become drier (Palmer and Räisänen 2002).”