How Much Skill Was There in Forecasting the Very Strong 1997–98 El Niño?

By C. Landsea, J. Knaff. 2000

171 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/ec653e07b7030eaa04ac035d7d3315af4b9f26d5

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Citations in the corpus

A Hierarchy of Data-Based ENSO Models (2005, background): “2003), and the quality of their forecasts is still far from satisfactory (Barnston et al. 1994, 1999; Landsea and Knaff 2000).”
Understanding Enso Physics—A Review (2013, background): “Numerical models, which succeeded in predicting the onset of the 1997–98 El Niño, were unable to forecast its intensity [e.g., Barnston et al., 1999; Landsea and Knaff, 2000] until the March 1997 westerly wind burst (WWB) was incorporated.”
Madden‐Julian Oscillation (2005, background): “forecasts of a recent ENSO event were unsatisfactory [Barnston et al., 1999; Landsea and Knaff, 2000].”
Forecast calibration and combination: A simple Bayesian approach for ENSO (2004, background): “Some studies argue that empirical models perform better (e.g., Landsea and Knaff 2000), while other studies claim that dynamical climate models can give better ENSO forecasts (e.g., Trenberth 1998).”
Evolution of the 2002/03 El Niño* (2003, background): “…While forecasting of ENSO-related tropical Pacific*SSTs and their global consequences are far from perfect (Barnston et al. 1999; Mason et al. 1999; Landsea and Knaff 2000), there has nonetheless been significant progress in the development and application of ENSO forecast methodologies over the…”
Comparison of Some Statistical Methods of Probabilistic Forecasting of ENSO. (2002, background): “…et al. 1993; Tracton and Kalnay 1993; Sivillo et al. 1997; Goddard et al. 2001), and given the poor performance of operational forecasts of ENSO (Barnston et al. 1999; Kerr 2000; Landsea and Knaff 2000), it is surprising that so few ENSO forecasts continue to be presented in probabilistic terms.”