Aggregate-Level Migration Studies as a Tool for Forecasting Future Migration Streams

By Michael Fertig, Christoph M. Schmidt. Social Science Research Network, 2000

112 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Assessing the migration potential and predicting future migration streams are among the most relevant, yet least well understood topics of migration research. The usual approach taken to address aggregate-level prediction problems is to fit ad hoc specifications to historical data, and to extrapolate from these estimates on the basis of conditioning information that is assumed to be known with certainty. In this context, this strategy faces formidable problems that exceed the usual difficulties arising for the prediction of economic variables. This paper addresses this extrapolation problem formally, with an application to the case of EU-enlargement and the ensuing migration streams to be expected from Eastern Europe.

Subfields: Demography, Sociology and Political Science

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/ec51e593c4b5d4002cf2d0c5905108c12ebc1a4d

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Demography

In Sociology and Political Science

Citations in the corpus

Economic Impacts of Immigration: A Survey (2011, background): “5For example, IOM (1991), Layard et al. (1992), Coleman (1993), OECD (1998), Bauer and Zimmermann (1999), Fertig and Schmidt (2001), and Boeri and Brücker (2005).”
Selection or Network Effects? Migration Flows into 27 OECD Countries, 1990-2000 (2004, methodology): “…of destination countries fixed or random effects, c j, in order to capture unobserved time-constant factors influencing immigration flows, 5 for instance differences in national immigration policy, see for instance Fertig and Schmidt (2000) for the importance of the homogeneity assumptions.”
Determinants of International Migration Flows to and from Industrialized Countries: A Panel Data Approach beyond Gravity 1 (2010, background): “Fertig and Schmidt (2000) observed that research on the driving forces of international migration emphasized economic variables (e.g., income and employment) and neglected demographic factors (e.g., age structure, health, and life expectancy).”
Selection and network effects—Migration flows into OECD countries 1990–2000 (2008, methodology): “A more appropriate measure, that we are not able to include because of data limitations, would be the proportion of the population in the younger adult age groups because a large proportion of migration flows has been driven by these age groups, see for instance Fertig and Schmidt (2000).”