Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts Using an Ensemble of Dynamical Models

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On the Ability of Global Ensemble Prediction Systems to Predict Tropical Cyclone Track Probabilities (2010, background): “The relationship between the variance and the errors of a consensus of dynamical models has been explored by Goerss (2000) and Elsberry and Carr (2000).”
On the relative benefits of a multi‐centre grand ensemble for tropical cyclone track prediction in the western North Pacific (2012, background): “Moreover, Goerss (2000), Elsberry and Carr (2000), and Goerss (2007) have demonstrated the benefits of the ensemble spread as a measure of confidence in ensemble TC track prediction: a small spread of tracks is often an indication of a small error in the ensemble-mean track prediction.”
Multimodel Superensemble Forecasting of Tropical Cyclones in the Pacific (2003, background): “Goerss (2000) gives an excellent demonstration of how the skill of a simple consensus (i.e., uniform weights) depends on both the mean skill of the models used in the consensus and their correlation.”
Prediction of Consensus Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error (2007, background): “Goerss (2000) defined consensus model spread to be the average distance of the member forecasts from the consensus forecast and found that, in a broad sense, a forecaster could Corresponding author address: James S. Goerss, NRL, 7 Grace Hopper Ave., Stop 2, Monterey, CA 93943-5502.”