Prediction of Consensus Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error

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On the relative benefits of a multi‐centre grand ensemble for tropical cyclone track prediction in the western North Pacific (2012, background): “Moreover, Goerss (2000), Elsberry and Carr (2000), and Goerss (2007) have demonstrated the benefits of the ensemble spread as a measure of confidence in ensemble TC track prediction: a small spread of tracks is often an indication of a small error in the ensemble-mean track prediction.”
On the Ability of Global Ensemble Prediction Systems to Predict Tropical Cyclone Track Probabilities (2010, methodology): “For further details on the methodology of GPCE, the reader is referred to Goerss (2007). e. Verification The verifications are conducted using the postseason best tracks produced by the NHC for the Atlantic Basin, and the JMA for the western North Pacific basin.”