Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models

By Haiyan Song, Stephen F. Witt, T. Jensen. 2003

267 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Economics and Econometrics

1. Haiyan Song
2. Gang Li
3. D. Wu
4. G. Crouch
5. Bo Peng
6. Stephen F. Witt
7. Kevin K. F. Wong
8. Chokri Ouerfelli

In Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management

1. Haiyan Song
2. D. Wu
3. Gang Li
4. Kevin K. F. Wong
5. George Athanasopoulos
6. G. Crouch
7. Bo Peng
8. Stephen F. Witt

Citations in the corpus

• Co-integration analysis of quarterly European tourism demand in Tunisia (2008, methodology): “ Song et al. (2003) showed the superiority of the nai¨ ve ‘no change’ model over the ECMs and their result is in agreement with Kulendran and Witt (2001) and Song and Witt (2000).”
• A meta-analysis of international tourism demand forecasting and implications for practice (2014, background): “Song, Witt, and Jensen (2003) compare six alternative econometric models including a static regression, two ECMs, an ADLM, an unrestricted VAR, and a TVP model, in the context of demand for international tourism in Denmark.”
• A Meta-Analysis of International Tourism Demand Elasticities (2013, background): “This may be a product of the oil crisis at the end of the 1970s (Martin and Witt 1987; Lim and McAleer 2002; Song, Witt, and Jensen 2003) or the global economic recession in the early 1980s.”
• Tourism forecasting: To combine or not to combine? (2007, methodology): “Song et al (2003b) compared the forecasting performance of the ECM, ADLM, TVP and VAR models with those generated by the two univariate time series models in forecasting the demand for Denmark tourism and found that the TVP model generates the most accurate one-year-ahead forecasts.”
• Tourism Demand Forecasting: A Time Varying Parameter Error Correction Model (2006, methodology): “Applications of the TVP model to tourism demand forecasting have shown its superiority over fixed-parameter econometric models in terms of short-run forecasting accuracy (see, for instance, Song, Witt, and Jensen 2003; Witt, Song, and Louvieris 2003).”
• Forecasting international tourist flows to Macau (2006, background): “…the income variable was found to be insignificant in some of the error correction models in Kulendran and King (1997), Kim and Song (1998), and Song et al (2003b), and the insignificant income variable tends to be associated with the models related to the demand for international tourism by…”
• Tourism demand modelling and forecasting—A review of recent research (2008, methodology): “ADLM was employed in such studies as Song et al (2003a) and Song et al (2003c).”
• Forecasting Accuracy Evaluation of Tourist Arrivals: Evidence from Parametric and Non-Parametric Techniques (2015, unknown): “For in- stance, Song et al. (2003) consider six econometric models (including a regression-based model, a WickensBreusch Error Correction Model (ECM), Johansens ECM, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ADLM), an unrestricted Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR), a Time Varying Parameter model)…”
• Assessing the Impacts of the Global Economic Crisis and Swine Flu on Inbound Tourism Demand in the United Kingdom (2012, methodology): “Other empirical studies have also proved the technique to be an efficient tool for generating accurate forecasts in tourism demand studies (see, e.g., Song, Witt, and Jensen 2003; Riddington 2004).”