Finite Samples and Uncertainty Estimates for Skill Measures for Seasonal Prediction

114 citations recorded by the source corpus.

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

Decadal climate prediction: an update from the trenches (2014, background): “Statistical significance of skill depends crucially on the length of the verification time series and autocorrelation within the period, with robust estimates requiring verification over a large sample or long time series (Kumar 2009).”
An Assessment of the CFS Real-Time Seasonal Forecasts (2010, background): “1, bottom), leading to a low signal regime for which the predictive skill is also expected to be low (Van den Dool and Toth 1991; Kumar 2009).”
A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments (2012, background): “The statistical signiﬁcance of skill depends critically on the length of the veriﬁcation time-series with progressively more robust estimates requiring veriﬁcations over longer and longer period (Kumar 2009).”