LOW BASE RATES LIMIT EXPERT CERTAINTY WHEN CURRENT ACTUARIALS ARE USED TO IDENTIFY SEXUALLY VIOLENT PREDATORS An Application of Bayes's Theorem

By R. Wollert. 2006

104 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Clinical Psychology, Sociology and Political Science

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/d5e5cedec580026f89158ade91eb06aadcb813c1

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Clinical Psychology

In Sociology and Political Science

Citations in the corpus

Sexually Violent Predators in the Courtroom: Science on Trial (2006, unknown): “…including rape, compiled by the Federal Bureau of Investigation in 1980, 1994, and 2001 (Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention, 2004), prevalence rates increase to a peak in the midto-late teens and then steadily decrease over age until the end of life (as cited in Wollert, 2006).”
Characterizing the Value of Actuarial Violence Risk Assessments (2007, background): “Wollert (2006) asserted that in one offender population assumed to be high risk (those adjudicated as sexually violent persons), base rates are indeed so low that the appropriate decision is almost always to detain no one.”
Rater (dis)agreement on risk assessment measures in sexually violent predator proceedings: Evidence of adversarial allegiance in forensic evaluation? (2009, methodology): “ARAIs play a prominent role in sex offender civil commitment proceedings because they are the primary method by which evaluators assess the criterion of risk of future offending (Wollert, 2006).”
Beyond sexual recidivism : a review of the sexual criminal career parameters of adult sex offenders (2013, unknown): “The aggregate base rate of sexual recidivism has been seriously criticized for not taking into account the offenders' age at their release from prison (e.g., Wollert, 2006).”
Assessment of Reoffense Risk in Adolescents Who Have Committed Sexual Offenses (2009, background): “Because sexual reoffending is relatively rare and base rates are low, assessing reoffense risk is likely to be difficult (for a discussion of low bases and risk assessment, see Towl & Crighton, 1997; Wollert, 2006).”