Prediction of Cultivar Performance Based on Single‐ versus Multiple‐Year Tests in Soybean

By Weikai Yan, Istvan Rajcan. Crop science, 2003

83 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Because of the omnipresent genotype × year or genotype × location × year interactions in crop performance trials, it is commonly believed that multiple-year data should be used in selecting cultivars for the next year. An implicated but rarely tested hypothesis is that multiple-year data are more predictive than single-year data of cultivar performance in the next year. Yield data of the 1991 to 2000 Ontario Soybean Variety Trials in the 2800 Crop Heat Unit (CHU) area were used to study the power of single-year, multiple-location trials in predicting cultivar performances in the following year, and to see if data from multiple-year trials are more predictive. Mixed models were used to estimate best linear unbiased predictions (BLUP) of tested genotypes on the basis of single- or multiple-year trials, and the t-statistic of BLUP (tBLUP) was used as a measure of cultivar performance. Results indicated that a single-year, multiple-location trial had sufficient power for identifying genotypes that would perform well or poorly in the next year. Two to four years' data gave only slightly better predictions of next-year performances than single-year data but allowed more genotypes to be evaluated conclusively. The tBLUP of genotype effects based on 2 yr of multiple-location trials should be used as a basis for soybean cultivar selection and recommendation in the 2800 CHU area of Ontario.

Subfields: Plant Science

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/d388bea6f0e78f9a7c195b3265c52879ad504ee9

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Citations in the corpus

BLUP for phenotypic selection in plant breeding and variety testing (2008, methodology): “Yan and Rajcan (2003) used BLUP in soybean (Glycine max) based on a three-way model (genotype-bylocation-by-year).”
Understanding Soybean Maturity Groups in Brazil: Environment, Cultivar Classification, and Stability (2009, background): “These results indicate that almost all materials have excellent maturity stability and that data from maturity trials can be used for predicting phenology and culture management for other areas (Zhang et al., 2001; Yan and Rajcan, 2003).”
Selection in Cultivar Trials—Is It Ignorable? (2006, result): “The conclusion to the contrary by Yan and Rajcan (2003) is refuted by their own data: plotting their mean correlation between BLUPs based on past data and mean yields in current years against the number of past years ( Yan and Rajcan, 2003: Table 6), one sees a trend of continuous increase of the c”
GGE Biplot Analysis of Yield Stability in Multi-environment Trials of Lentil Genotypes under Rainfed Condition (2013, background): “Therefore, these results from semiarid conditions of Iran have confirmed that although grain yield has depended on genetic potential, this is modified under environmental factors and their conditions like cold regions of Canada (Yan and Rajcan, 2003).”