Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s

By Daron Acemoglu, David H. Autor, David Dorn, Gordon H. Hanson, Brendan M. Price. Journal of Labor Economics, 2015

960 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Even before the Great Recession, US employment growth was unimpressive. Between 2000 and 2007, the economy gave back the considerable employment gains achieved during the 1990s, with a historic contraction in manufacturing employment being a prime contributor to the slump. We estimate that import competition from China, which surged after 2000, was a major force behind both recent reductions in US manufacturing employment and—through input-output linkages and other general equilibrium channels—weak overall US job growth. Our central estimates suggest job losses from rising Chinese import competition over 1999–2011 in the range of 2.0–2.4 million.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/d1b2e95fe86903f9b6bf1048566e129e4b3eb085

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

In Economics and Econometrics

Citations in the corpus

De-globalization: Theories, predictions, and opportunities for international business research (2019, background): “, 2010), at the individual level of the affected worker, the overall impact seems to be adverse (Acemoglu et al., 2016; Autor et al., 2013).”
The Transformation of Manufacturing and the Decline in US Employment (2019, methodology): “The change in the ratio of real production worker wages to real capital stock is shown by bins of the change in import penetration by China between 1999 and 2011 (Acemoglu et al. 2016; NBER 2016).”
Can Innovation Help U.S. Manufacturing Firms Escape Import Competition from China? (2015, result): “This result is consistent with Acemoglu et al. (2016) who estimate the effect”
When Work Disappears: Manufacturing Decline and the Falling Marriage Market Value of Young Men (2017, background): “Our empirical strategy builds on Autor et al. (2013a) and Acemoglu et al. (2016).”
Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets (2019, methodology): “We supplement the CBP with the NBER-CES data set, which covers the manufacturing sector and reports data on employment and wage bills for all workers and for production workers (see Acemoglu et al. 2016).”
Is Automation Labor-Displacing? Productivity Growth, Employment, and the Labor Share (2018, positive): “Our analysis follows many recent works exploiting these linkages to study the propagation of trade and technology shocks (Acemoglu et al. 2016; Pierce and Schott, 2016; Acemoglu, Akcigit and Kerr, 2017).”
Disappearing Routine Jobs: Who, How, and Why? (2017, background): “…Charles, Hurst, and Notowidigdo (2013) discuss the role of the decline in manufacturing, Beaudry, Green, and Sand (2016) highlight a reversal in the demand for cognitive skills, and Acemoglu et al. (2016) discuss the role of increased import competition. conditional on demographic characteristics.”
New Perspectives on the Decline of US Manufacturing Employment (2018, background): “For reasons we elaborate on below, we think providing answers to that question is nearly impossible.(1) Instead, our goal in this paper is to highlight largely unexplored dimensions of U.”
The Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment (2013, neutral): “granting of Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) to China, which was passed by Congress in October 2000 and became e ective upon China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) at the end of 2001.(1) Conferral of PNTR was unique in that it did not change the import tari rates the United S”
The Economic Effects of the Trans-Pacific Partnership: New Estimates (2016, background): “18 Th is decline, at least relative to the rest of the economy, is expected to continue regardless of trade policy (Acemoglu et al. 2014).”